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South African Electricity Market—2016 Snapshot

South African Electricity Market—2016 Snapshot

The electricity sector in South Africa has witnessed dynamic changes over the past few years. Sharp increases in electricity tariffs have been a prominent feature of the electricity supply industry in South Africa. Declining global commodity prices and increasing electricity prices have had a detrimental impact on the mining and manufacturing industry, which have experienced sluggish growth. The economy of South Africa is witnessing a gradual change with increased contribution from the services sector. As such, the demand for electricity has reduced. Decreasing costs of renewable energy technologies, regulatory reforms, market restructuring, coupled with the risks and delays associated with base-load coal and nuclear power will largely determine the future of the electricity sector in South Africa.


  • Executive Summary
    • Key Findings
  • Introduction
    • Key Questions this Study will Answer
    • Scope of Study
  • South Africa-Introduction
    • South Africa-Country Overview
    • Economic Outlook
      • Table Quarter-on-Quarter Economic Growth, Real GDP Growth, South Africa, Q1 2012- Q3 2016
    • GDP Contribution by Sector
  • Regulatory Framework and Organisations
    • Electricity Supply Industry-Market Structure
    • Sector Overview
    • Key Organisations
  • Electricity Generation
    • Current Installed Capacity-Technology and Ownership
    • Current Installed Capacity-Fuel Type and Owner
    • Evolution of Installed Capacity
      • Table Installed Capacity and Peak Demand on Eskom Network, South Africa, 2011/12-2015/16
    • Electricity Generation
      • Table Electricity Output by Fuel Type, South Africa, 2011/12-2015/16
    • Introduction to REIPPPP
    • REIPP Procurement Programme
      • Table Ministerial Determination for Development of Renewable Energy Projects, South Africa, 2011-2015
    • REIPPPP-Procured and Operational Capacity
      • Table Status of REIPPPP, South Africa, 2016
    • REIPPPP-Technology-wise Capacity Allocation per Bid Window
      • Table Technology-wise Capacity Allocation for Renewable Energy, South Africa, 2016
    • Current Installed Capacity Under REIPPP (Feb 2016)
      • Table Commercial Capacity Operation by Region, South Africa, 2016
    • Declining Prices of RE Power Projects per BW
      • Table Renewable Energy Price Path, South Africa, 2011-2016
    • Comparison of Power Generation Technologies Based on Unit Cost of Energy
      • Table Lifetime Cost per Energy Unit for Different Generation Technologies, South Africa, 2016
    • Concerns Surrounding REIPPP and Future Build
    • Future Generation Mix as per IRP
    • Future Generation Plan for TDP 2016-2025
      • Table New Generation Capacity as per Eskom TDP, South Africa, 2016-2025
    • IRP 2016 in Numbers (New Build Options 2021-2050)
      • Table Proposed New Build Power Generation as per IRP 2016 Draft, South Africa, 2021-2050
      • Table Contribution by Installed Capacity, South Africa, 2020-2050
      • Table Contribution by Generating Capacity, South Africa, 2020-2050
    • IRP 2016 Update-Frost & Sullivan Analysis
  • Electricity Transmission
    • Existing Transmission Infrastructure
    • Transmission Development Plan-Major Planned Projects
    • Future Transmission Assets
      • Table Future Requirements for Transmission Equipment, South Africa, 2016-2025
  • Electricity Distribution and Supply
    • Distribution Responsibilities (Eskom and Municipalities)
    • Electricity Sales and Peak Demand Trends
      • Table Electricity Sales and Peak Demand, South Africa, 2006/07-2015/16
    • Electricity Sales per Customer Category
      • Table Electricity Sales by Customer Category, South Africa, 2011/12-2015/16
    • Electricity Sales in Southern Africa (Export)
      • Table Electricity Export by Country, South Africa, 2011/12-2015/16
  • Peak Demand and Energy Projections
    • IRP Projections 2010 and Update Base Case 2013
      • Table Peak Demand Projections as per IRP 2010 Scenario, South Africa, 2010-2030
      • Table Peak Demand Projections as per IRP 2013 Scenario, South Africa, 2013-2030
    • IRP Projections 2010 and 2013 Update (Anticipated Energy Consumption)
      • Table Energy Consumption as per IRP 2010 and IRP 2013 Scenarios, South Africa, 2010-2030
    • IRP Projections and Actual Situation
      • Table IRP Projections vs. Actual Energy Consumption, South Africa, 2010-2016
    • Understanding Various IRP Scenarios
    • CSIR Forecasts Using Sectoral Regression Model-Basis for IRP 2016 Base Case
      • Table Energy and Peak Demand Forecasts as per IRP 2016, South Africa, 2016-2030
    • Need for Annual IRP Updates
  • Electricity Tariffs
    • Eskom Tariff and Inflation
    • Evolution of Electricity Tariffs (Eskom Tariffs as per Consumer Category)
    • Evolution of Electricity Tariffs
  • Drivers and Restraints
    • Drivers
    • Drivers Explained
    • Restraints
    • Restraints Explained
  • Growth Opportunities and Companies to Action
    • Growth Opportunity 1-Power Generation
    • Strategic Imperatives for Success and Growth
  • The Last Word
    • The 3 Big Predictions
  • Appendix
    • Acronyms

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