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Russia Light Vehicle Market, Forecast to 2023

Russia Light Vehicle Market, Forecast to 2023

The shifts in Russian economic and legislative environment changed the landscape of the automotive sector. As the market entered the new paradigm of post-recession economic recovery, the key participants in the segment (including OEMs and dealer chains) are preparing to tap into the new opportunities and develop a long-term strategy to hedge against the potential future risks that emerging markets are susceptible to. This study is a tool to be used in guidance for potential and current investors that are interested or already operate in the Russian automotive market. This study analyses the automotive market and industry in Russia, provides a strategic overview of the current macroeconomic situation in Russia, and discusses the future projections. The analysis focuses on the investment climate, impact of the recent economic recession on the automotive market, governmental policies, and the regulatory environment related to the automotive industry (implementation of ERA-GLONASS and its implications; trends related to import tariff, excise tax, utilization fee, transport tax, mandatory car insurance, and so on).

Research Highlights

The study analyses historical sales data from 2013 and provides forecasts until 2023, outlining the key driving and restraining forces that will impact the market over the next 5 years. The study captures such drivers as post-crisis demand revival, legislative initiatives targeting the fleet renewals, shifts in auto financing, and others. On the other hand, examples of restraints discussed include high borrowing costs and a decline in the model range supplied in the market.

The study outlines the key opportunities with regard to the LV market in Russia (such as the overall need to replace the aged vehicle fleet, resilience of the premium segment, and strong demand for SUVs). This research service provides insights on the used vehicle market (including the forecast till 2023, breakdowns by age and make, and the value chain) that gained strength in the time of economic downturn, as customers experienced a decrease in purchasing power and difficulty in obtaining credit. The analysis of the key segments is included in this work and confirms the projected growth in the SUV segment due to customer preferences and increase in supply of SUV models in the Russian market. Examples of the best-selling models within the key segments are outlined as well (this includes brief information about the vehicles’ key features and the formula behind their success).

Other points discussed in the study include: industry and localization, auto components, dealers snapshot, future technology trends (market for electric cars and infrastructure) and fleet/leasing with an overview of key regions. The study is based on the Frost & Sullivan scenario.


  • Executive Summary
    • Executive Summary-Key Takeaways
    • Overview of the Regulatory Structure in the Russian Market
    • Overall Russian Economy
    • Market Performance in Russia
    • Car Parc-Regional Distribution
    • Car Sales-Regional Distribution
    • Used Car Sales-Regional Distribution
    • Best Selling LV Models-Russia
    • Russian Light Vehicles Market-Key Technology Trends
    • Key Findings and Future Outlook
  • Research Scope, Objectives, Background, and Methodology
    • Research Scope
    • Research Aims and Objectives
    • Key Questions this Study will Answer
    • Research Background
    • Research Methodology
  • Drivers and Restraints-Light Vehicle Market
    • Market Drivers
    • Market Drivers Explained
    • Market Restraints
    • Market Restraints Explained
  • Russia Light Vehicles Market
    • Russia Outlook
    • Russia-Macroeconomic Overview
    • Coface Ratings
    • Russia-Population Trends
    • Russia-Macroeconomics of the Federal Districts
      • Table Macroeconomics of the Federal Districts, Russia, 2017
    • Russia's Light Vehicles Parc
    • Geographical Distribution of LV Parc Versus Car Density
    • Parc Distribution by Age-Russia, Moscow and St. Petersburg
    • Parc Breakdown by Make
    • Russian Light Vehicles Market-Key Influencing Trends
    • Regulatory Environment
    • Government Support Programs
    • LV Sales Forecast Scenario Analysis
    • LV Sales Distribution by Federal Districts
    • LV Sales Distribution by Key Sub-regions/Cities
    • Light Vehicle Sales Breakdown by Make
    • Economic Recession Versus Market Shifts
    • Powertrain, Engine Size, and Fuel Prices
    • Progression of Sales-Chinese Brands
    • Market for Electric Cars in Russia
    • Russia LVs Sales Segmentation
    • Progression of Sales-Russian Versus Foreign Brands
    • Fleet and Leasing in Russia
    • Fleet Sales by Region
    • LV Market-Fleet Versus Retail
  • Dealer Environment Overview
    • Top 5 Key Trends
    • Key Dealer Chains in Russia
    • Dealer Benchmarking
      • Table Light Vehicle Market: Overview of the Key Dealers in Russia, 2016
  • Russian Used Car Market
    • Used Versus New Car Markets
    • Used Car Market-Value Chain in Russia
    • Used Light Vehicle Sales Breakdown by Make
    • Age Structure and Euro Standards of Used LV Market
  • Automotive Industry
    • Contribution of the Automotive Industry in Russia's Economy
    • Automotive Industry-State Support Allocation
    • Overview of Local Production
  • Market for Auto Components
    • Manufacturing Localization in Russia
    • Market for Auto Components
    • Market for Auto Components by Key Categories
    • SWOT Analysis-Light Vehicles Market
  • Growth Opportunities and Companies to Action
    • TIES Project-5 Major Growth Opportunities
    • Strategic Imperatives for Conferencing Service Providers
  • Conclusions and Future Outlook
    • Key Conclusions
  • Appendix
    • Abbreviations and Acronyms Used
    • Market Engineering Methodology

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