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The Maize and Wheat Flour Market in Kenya, Forecast to 2020

The Maize and Wheat Flour Market in Kenya, Forecast to 2020

The Kenyan maize and wheat flour market will show strong growth (CAGR of 7.3%) over the next 5 years as changing consumer preferences for wheat flour, improving retail accessibility, and increasing market sophistication drive demand. Worth $738.1 million in 2015, the Kenyan wheat flour market is expected to reach $1.15 billion by 2020 at a CAGR of 9.2%, accounting for 47.2% of the market by 2020. In comparison, the commercial maize flour market is expected to increase from $315.8 million in 2015 to $444.0 million by 2020 at a CAGR of 7.1%, while posho maize flour will increase from $658.2 million in 2015 to $840.2 million by 2020 at a CAGR of 5.0%.

Both the wheat and commercial maize flour markets in Kenya are very competitive, dominated by Tier I participants. The commercial maize flour market has an additional segment to compete with besides wheat flour—posho flour. Posho millers provide inferior-quality flour at cheaper prices for price-sensitive consumers, and comprise the bulk of the maize flour market in Kenya.

Tier I market competitors involved in both wheat and commercial maize milling include Mombasa Maize Millers (MMM), Diamond Lalji Group (DLG), Pembe-Kitui, and Unga Group Limited. TSS Grain Millers (wheat milling), Uzuri Food Limited (wheat milling), and Alpha Grain Millers (maize milling) conclude the list of Tier I competitors. Tier II and Tier III competitors are also mentioned, as well as the estimated milling capacities of Tier I, II, and III participants. Five key growth opportunities as well as critical success factors are highlighted.

Geographic scope: Kenya
Product scope: Wheat flour, commercial maize flour, and posho maize flour
Application scope: Business-to-business (B2B) and business-to-consumer (B2C)
Study period: 2013 to 2020

Objectives of the study:
Provide an overview of the African growth path to 2020 and the East African context for the Kenyan analysis through a PESTLE analysis
Provide an overview of the maize and wheat milling industry in Kenya, splitting the maize segment into commercial versus posho maize flour
Outline the main drivers and restraints impacting the 2 major segments: commercial maize flour and wheat flour
Outline the value chains and distribution flows of the 3 segments
Provide market metrics and forecast the 3 segments (2013 to 2020)
Highlight key growth opportunities in the Kenyan maize and wheat flour market

Key target audience:
Current market participants
Potential new entrants
Grain traders
Potential investors
Financial institutions


  • Executive Summary
    • Key Findings
      • Table Maize and Wheat Flour Market: Forecasted Consumption Volumes*, Kenya, 2015 and 2020
  • Study Scope and Introduction
    • Scope of the Study
    • Introduction to Maize and Wheat Milling in Kenya
    • Market Definitions
    • Abbreviations
  • The African Growth Path-Kenya and East Africa
    • Forecasted GDP CAGRs for African Countries (2015-2020)
      • Table Forecasted GDP CAGRs, Africa, 2015-2020
    • Kenyan Regional Integration
    • EAC's Contribution to the African Growth Path
      • Table Gross Domestic Product by Country or Region, EAC and Africa, 2010-2020
  • PESTLE Analysis-Kenya and East Africa
    • PESTLE Analysis for Kenya and EAC
    • Political Situation in EAC Countries
      • Table Country Governance Indicators*, East African Community, 2012-2014
    • Role of Agriculture in the EAC
      • Table Value of the Agricultural Sector, East African Community, 2010, 2014, and 2015
    • Public Sector Involvement in Agriculture-Kenya
    • Private Sector Involvement in Agriculture-Kenya
    • Economic Indicators in EAC Countries
      • Table Economic Indicators, East African Community, 2014 and 2015
    • Social Indicators in EAC Countries
      • Table Social Indicators, East African Community, 2014 and 2015
      • Table Grain Consumption, Kenya, 2008-2013*
    • City Comparison-Population Statistics and Dominant Sectors
      • Table Population Statistics, Kenya, 2009*
    • Technological Developments
    • Legal Environment
      • Table Maize Imports-EAC Standards, Kenya, 2015
      • Table Wheat Flour Market: Fortification Nutrients, Kenya, 2015
      • Table Maize Flour Market: Fortification Nutrients, Kenya, 2015
      • Table Legal Environment-Selection of Taxes and Rates Charged, Kenya, 2015
    • Environmental Analysis-Top Crops per Country
      • Table Crop Production, Kenya, 2014*
      • Table Crop Production, Uganda, 2013 & 2014
      • Table Crop Production, Tanzania, 2013 & 2014
      • Table Crop Production, Rwanda, 2013 & 2014
      • Table Crop Production, Burundi, 2013 & 2014
    • Environmental Analysis-Climate Change
    • Environmental Analysis-Infrastructure Development and Trade
      • Table Logistics Performance Index Ratings, Kenya, 2012, 2014, 2016
      • Table Maize and Wheat Trade-Import and Export Data (MT), Tanzania and Kenya, 2011-2015
  • Total Kenyan Maize and Wheat Flour Market
    • Market Overview
      • Table Maize and Wheat Flour Market: Forecasted Consumption Volumes (Metric Tonnes), Kenya, 2015 and 2020
      • Table Maize and Wheat Flour Market: Flour Prices, Kenya, 2015
      • Table Maize and Wheat Flour Market: Forecasted Consumption Per Capita*, Kenya, 2015 and 2020
    • Market Overview-Grain and Flour
    • Market Dynamics-Key Trends Influencing Flows
    • Market Dynamics-Key Levers for B2B Demand Generation
    • Market Dynamics-Key Levers for B2C Demand Generation
    • Market Dynamics-Brand Equity
    • Market Dynamics-Barriers to Entry and Mitigation
    • Market Dynamics-Industry Disruptors and Dynamics
  • Kenyan Maize Flour Market
    • Formal versus Informal Maize Milling
    • Commercial Maize Flour-Drivers
    • Commercial Maize Flour-Drivers Explained
    • Commercial Maize Flour-Restraints
    • Commercial Maize Flour-Restraints Explained
    • Commercial Maize Flour-Domestic Consumption
      • Table Commercial Maize Flour Market: Calculating Domestic Consumption (MT), Kenya, 2011-2015
    • Commercial Maize Flour Value Chain and Distribution (2015)
    • Commercial Maize Flour-Market Forecast
      • Table Commercial Maize Flour Market: Consumption Volume Forecast, Kenya, 2013-2020
    • Commercial Maize Flour-Market Forecast Discussion
    • Posho Maize Flour-Domestic Consumption
      • Table Posho Maize Flour Market: Calculating Domestic Consumption (MT), Kenya, 2011-2015
    • Posho Maize Flour Value Chain and Distribution (2015)
    • Posho Maize Flour-Market Forecast
      • Table Posho Maize Flour Market: Consumption Volume Forecast, Kenya, 2013-2020
    • Posho Maize Flour-Market Forecast Discussion
  • Kenyan Wheat Flour Market
    • Wheat Flour-Drivers
    • Wheat Flour-Drivers Explained
    • Wheat Flour-Restraints
    • Wheat Flour-Restraints Explained
    • Market Overview-Wheat and Wheat Flour
      • Table Wheat Flour Market: Calculating Domestic Consumption (MT), Kenya, 2011-2015
    • Wheat Flour Value Chain and Distribution (2015)
    • Wheat Flour-Market Forecast
      • Table Wheat Flour Market: Consumption Volume Forecast, Kenya, 2013-2020
    • Wheat Flour-Market Forecast Discussion
  • Competitive Analysis
    • Competitive Overview
    • Production Capacities (Metric Tonnes per 24 Hours)
    • Competitive Overview-Market Shares
    • Procurement and Distribution Models
    • Competitor Profiles-Mombasa Maize Millers (MMM)
    • Competitor Profiles-Diamond Lalji Group (DLG)
    • Competitor Profiles-Unga Group Limited
    • Competitor Profiles-Pembe Kitui
    • Competitor Profiles-Alpha Grain Millers Ltd
    • Competitor Profiles-Uzuri Foods Ltd
    • Competitor Profiles-Kabansora Millers Ltd
  • Conclusions
    • Competitive Markets Using Inefficient Mills
    • Increasing B2B Market Demand for Wheat Flour
  • Growth Opportunities and Companies to Action
    • Growth Opportunity 1-Business Diversification
    • Growth Opportunity 2-Achieving Economies of Scale
    • Growth Opportunity 3-Growing Importance of the B2B Market Segment for Wheat Flour
    • Growth Opportunity 4-Increasing Brand Awareness
    • Growth Opportunity 5-Local Sourcing Strategy is Required
    • Strategic Imperatives for Success and Growth

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