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Indian Commercial Vehicles (CV) Market, Forecast to 2022

Indian Commercial Vehicles (CV) Market, Forecast to 2022

This study involves a unique methodology of analysis of various end-use application segments in commercial vehicles, their usage pattern, replacement cycles, and expected growth in the end-use industry, coupled with Mega Trends such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, urbanization, changing safety and emission norms, new tax reforms, changing trends in the usage pattern, and the resultant effect on the demand of commercial vehicles across the Gross Vehicle Weight (GVW) range.

The scope of the study includes commercial vehicle goods carriers (excluding 3W) and passenger carriers (excluding cars and vans) as defined by the Society of Indian Automobiles Manufacturers (SIAM).

For goods carriers, the various end-use industry sectors that drive the demand for commercial vehicles include cement, Petroleum, Oil, and Lubricants (POL), Steel, mining, construction material, agriculture, Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG), Fast Moving Consumer Durables (FMCD), automobiles, import-export containers, and market load.

For the passenger carrier segment, the various end-user applications include school, staff, tourist, intra-city, and intercity buses.

Total Units in Operation (UIO) for all the above end-user applications have been estimated. Estimated growth in end-use applications, coupled with vehicle replacement patterns in each segment, is used to estimate the demand in each segment.

Apart from end-use applications, the Indian commercial vehicle industry is also affected by a number of factors as follows which are used to further iterate the demand for commercial vehicles.
• One of the fastest growing GDPs in the world, leading to higher demand for goods and services
• Changing safety and emission regulations with the country moving to Bharat Stage-IV (Euro IV) norms in April 2017 affecting the purchase cost
of vehicles
• Implementation of the Goods and Service Tax (GST) in July 2017 which effectively makes the whole of India a single market with no state
barriers or differential taxation
• Increasing restrictions on overloading, thereby, increasing the demand for higher GVW vehicles
• Mega Trends such as urbanization, which is increasing the demand for last-mile connectivity

Key questions this study will answer are as follows
• Historic analysis of the commercial vehicles industry in India from FY2009 to FY2016
• Key participants in the industry and their market shares for FY2016 and FY2017
• Market shares of various participants in each segment categories of Light Commercial Vehicles (LCV) and Medium and Heavy Commercial
Vehicles (MHCV)
• End-user demand drivers of commercial vehicles in India
• Estimated impact of each application segment in the demand for commercial vehicles
• Impact of Mega Trends and how it will impact the growth of commercial vehicles
• GVW-wise forecast of commercial vehicles, including goods carriers and passenger carriers till FY2022
• Year-on-year forecast of all segment from FY2018 to FY2022


  • Executive Summary
    • Key Findings
  • Segmentation and Historical Data Analysis- Indian CV Industry
    • Indian CV Market Segmentation
    • Segmentation by Application and Vehicle Usage
    • Segmentation by Vehicle Category
    • Commercial Vehicles Historic Trend
      • Table CV Market: Major Factors Affecting CV Sales, India, FY2017
    • Major Factors Affecting CV Sales
    • Market Share Analysis of Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs)
    • Unit Sales by Vehicle Usage
      • Table CV Market: Unit Sales by Vehicle Usage, India, FY2009-FY2017
    • Market Share Analysis of OEMs by GC and PC
    • MHCV Sales by Vehicle Usage
      • Table CV Market: MHCV Sales by Vehicle Usage, India, FY2009-FY2017
    • Market Share Analysis of OEMs by MHCV GC and PC
    • LCV Sales by Vehicle Usage
      • Table CV Market: LCV Sales by Vehicle Usage, India, FY2009-FY2017
    • Market Share Analysis of OEMs by LCV GC and PC
  • Goods Carrier Segment Analysis-Major Load Producing Industries and CV UIO
    • Modal Split for Primary Transportation, POL, India, FY2017
      • Table Road is the largest mode of transportation carrying nearly 40% of all freight load in FY2017.
    • Modal Split for Primary Transportation, Cement and Mining, India, FY2017
      • Table The Indian Railways has a majority share in commodity movement; however, its share has been declining over the years
    • Modal Split for Primary Transportation, Other Sectors, India, FY2017
      • Table The share of the Indian Railways in steel and ISO containers is high
      • Table Road transportation has a dominant share in FMCG and FMCD segments
  • Cement
    • Cement Industry-India, FY2017
    • Cement-Value Chain
    • Units in Operation Estimates, Cement, India, FY2017
      • Table 31T and 37T are the most widely used trucks for carrying cement
  • Petroleum, Oils, Lubricants (POL)
    • POL Sector-India, FY2017
    • Major Refinery Hubs in India
    • POL-Value Chain
    • Chemical-Value Chain
    • Bitumen-Value Chain
    • Edible Oil-Value Chain
    • LPG Tanker-Value Chain
    • Units in Operation Estimates, POL, India, FY2017
      • Table 35T is most preferred for LPG; 16T and 25T are preferred for most POL products
  • Mining
    • Key Minerals Production and Mine Location-India, FY2017
    • Units in Operation Estimates, Mining, India, FY2017
      • Table 25T tipper is the most widely used truck, followed by 31T
  • Steel
    • Steel Sector-India, FY2017
      • Table Major Capacity Expansion Plans (Not Exhaustive), India, 2022
    • Steel-Value Chain
    • Units in Operation Estimates, Steel, India, FY2017
      • Table 35T and 40T tractor trailers are most widely used for steel transportation
  • Automobile Carriers
    • Automobile Industry-India, FY2017
    • Units in Operation Estimates, Automobiles, India, FY2017
      • Table Load Factor
  • Agriculture and Horticulture
    • Agriculture-India, FY2017
    • Units in Operation Estimates, Agriculture, India, FY2017
      • Table Load Factor
  • Construction Material
    • Road Infrastructure Development, India, 2005 to 2025(est)
      • Table High investments will result in a better road network in the future, improving the efficiency of transportation
    • Units in Operation Estimates, Construction Material, India, FY2017
      • Table Load Factor
  • ISO Containers
    • Port Container Traffic
    • ISO Container-Value Chain
    • Units in Operation Estimates, ISO Containers, India, FY2017
      • Table Load Factor
  • FMCG/FMCD Organized Retail and eCommerce
    • Retail Industry-Sector Snapshot: India, FY2009 to FY2017
    • Manufacturing Hubs-FMCG
    • Manufacturing Hubs-FMCD
    • Current Operating Practice-FMCG and FMCD, India, FY2017
      • Table Load Factor
    • Total UIO of the Applications Considered
      • Table Cement, POL, construction material, and agriculture are the major contributors of CV demand, apart from market load
  • Passenger Carriers-Usage and VIO Estimates
    • Staff Transportation
    • School Transportation
    • Intercity Transportation
    • Route Permit/Mofussil
    • Tourist
    • Major STUs Intercity Bus Fleet Strength, FY2017
      • Table Major STUs Intercity Bus Fleet Strength, India, FY2017
    • Major CTUs Intracity Bus Fleet Strength, FY2017
      • Table Major CTUs Intercity Bus Fleet Strength, India, FY2017
  • Trends Shaping Indian Road Freight and Passenger Carrier Movement
    • Urbanization-Growth in Urban Regions by 2025: India
    • Smart Cities
    • Impact of Smart Cities Development on CV
    • Fast-tracking Projects
    • Impact of GST
    • GST-Explained
    • GST Levy Structure and Impact on Manufacturers
    • GST-Benefit for Automobile OEMs
      • Table Pre GST Tax Structure
      • Table GST Structure
    • Major Implications of GST for the HCV Industry
    • GST's Impact on Logistics and Transportation
    • Major Warehousing Hubs will Emerge After GST
    • Emission Norms Roadmap
    • Regulations-Effect of Emission Norms on HD Trucks
    • Other Regulations
    • Other Regulations-Compulsory Air Conditioning (AC) in Truck Cabin
    • Regulations-Effect of Safety Regulation
    • Vehicle Scrapping Policy Background
    • Vehicle Scrapping Policy-Other Factors and Assumptions
    • Estimated Effect of Scrap Policy
      • Table Additional demand for medium-heavy commercial vehicles will be directly proportional to the quantum of budgetary outlay
      • Table Additional Demand due to Scrap Policy
    • Mega Projects-Dedicated Freight Corridor (DFC)
    • Mega Projects-Port Development: Sagar-Mala Project
    • Mega Projects-Railways Modernization
    • Dedicated Freight Corridor-Impact on CV, India
    • Overloading Practice (MHCV Segment)
    • Telematics in CVs
  • Mega Trends Shaping the Next 5 Years-CV PC
    • New Trends in Passenger Transportation
  • Industry Structure
    • Goods Carrier Industry Structure-India, FY2017
    • MHCV-GC Operating Economics Analysis-India
    • Manpower Availability
    • Government Policies for the Transportation Sector
  • Forecast Model-Indian CV Industry
    • Indian Economy and HCV Sales Trend-India
    • PESTLE-Political Impact Analysis: India
    • PESTLE-Economical Impact Analysis: India
    • PESTLE-Social Impact Analysis: India
    • PESTLE-Technological Impact Analysis: India
    • PESTLE-Legal Impact Analysis: India
    • PESTLE-Ecological Impact Analysis: India
    • GDP Forecast-Scenarios; India, FY2017-FY2022
      • Table GDP Growth Forecast, India, FY2017-FY2022
  • Indian Commercial Vehicles Forecast-Application Segments Growth Estimates
    • Estimated Production Growth Rates by Segment
      • Table Estimated Production Growth Across CV Application Segments, India, FY2017-FY2022
      • Table Estimated Growth Across CV Application Segments, India, FY2017-FY2022
      • Table Estimated Growth Across CV Application Segments, India, FY2017-FY2022
    • Cement-VIO Forecast: India, FY2017-FY2022
      • Table Estimated Growth, VIO, and Demand Forecast for Primary Transportation, Cement, FY2017-FY2022
    • POL-VIO Forecast: India, FY2017-FY2022
      • Table Estimated Growth, VIO, and Demand Forecast for Primary Transportation, POL, FY2017-FY2022
    • Mining-VIO Forecast: India, FY2017-FY2022
      • Table Estimated Growth, VIO and Demand Forecast for Primary Transportation, Mining, FY2017-FY2022
    • Steel-VIO Forecast: India, FY2017-FY2022
      • Table Estimated Growth, VIO and Demand Forecast for Primary Transportation, Steel, FY2017-FY2022
    • Automobiles-VIO Forecast: India, FY2017-FY2022
      • Table Estimated Growth, VIO and Demand Forecast for Primary Transportation, Automobiles, FY2017-FY2022
    • Agriculture-VIO Forecast: India, FY2017-FY2022
      • Table Estimated Growth, VIO and Demand Forecast for Primary Transportation, Agriculture, FY2017-FY2022
    • Construction Material-VIO Forecast: India, FY2017-FY2022
      • Table Estimated Growth, VIO and Demand Forecast for Primary Transportation, Construction Material, FY2017-FY2022
    • ISO Containers-VIO Forecast: India, FY2017-FY2022
      • Table Estimated Growth, VIO and Demand Forecast for Primary Transportation, ISO Container, FY2017-FY2022
    • FMCG and FMCD-VIO Forecast: India, FY2017-FY2022
      • Table Estimated Growth, VIO and Demand Forecast for Primary Transportation, FMCG and FMCD, FY2017-FY2022
    • Market Load and LCV-VIO Forecast: India, FY2017-FY2022
      • Table Estimated Growth, VIO and Demand Forecast for Primary Transportation, Market Load, FY2017-FY2022
    • Major Transport Undertakings-Plans for Procurement
    • Forecast Framework
    • Forecast-Goods Carrier: India, FY2017-FY2022
    • Segment-wise MHCV-GC Forecast-India, FY2017-FY2022
      • Table CV Market: MHCV GC Unit Sales Forecast by GVW, India, FY 2017-FY2022
    • Segment-wise LCV-GC Forecast-India, FY2017-FY2022
      • Table CV Market: LCV GC Unit Sales Forecast by GVW, India, FY 2017-FY2022
    • Forecast-Passenger Carrier: India, FY2017-FY2022
    • Segment-wise PC Forecast-India, FY2017-FY2022
      • Table CV Market: MHCV PC Unit Sales Forecast by GVW, India, FY 2017-FY2022
      • Table CV Market: LCV PC Unit Sales Forecast by GVW, India, FY 2017-FY2022
  • Growth Opportunities and Companies to Action
    • Growth Opportunity 1-Market Expansion
    • Growth Opportunity 2-Freight Digitization
    • Growth Opportunity 3-Telematics
    • Growth Opportunity 4-Value Addition in Trucks
    • Strategic Imperatives for Success and Growth
  • Conclusions and Future Outlook
    • Key Conclusions and Future Outlook
    • Key Conclusions
    • The Last Word-3 Big Predictions
  • Appendix
    • List of Abbreviations
    • Market Engineering Methodology

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