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Impact of Brexit on the UK Automotive Industry and Mitigation Strategies

Impact of Brexit on the UK Automotive Industry and Mitigation Strategies

The Brexit vote on 23 June 2016 is considered by many to beginning of UKs slowdown in the world economy. By what is considered to be the UK ‘shooting itself in the foot’, the UK has to construct an exit plan that will enable it to leave the European Union without causing further damage to its economy.

This study talks about what the potential scenarios could be, leading up to the UK exiting the EU. These are considered as:
• Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA)
• No deal (bringing in WTO tariffs)
• Soft brexit, also known as Chequers terms

The study talks about what each of these trade agreements means to the UK in terms of duties on goods and services, effects on labour, customs checks, and procurement.

It further analyses what each of these deals would mean to the automotive industry in the UK, and also in the EU considering that it is the UK’s single largest export market. Its compares between the three scenarios mentioned in terms of:
• Changes in certification due to different EU and UK regulations
• Customs inspection now that there will be a border
• Rules of origin of both parts and vehicles

To full understand how Brexit is going to impact the UK automotive market, different scenarios are presented:
• New car registrations: given that the best-selling and most of the vehicles sold in the UK are made in the EU, how will the aforementioned scenarios impact this? Is there going to be any future change in terms of sales in terms of rebounding?
• Production: how are new tariffs, either under the hard or soft Brexit deals going to impact production in the UK, of cars, commercial vehicles and parts? The report talks about what the changes are going to be in terms of labour in the market, considering that a significant portion of it comes from the EU mainland.
• Investment: the UK was considered to be a choice for strategic and safe investments, both in terms of production and development. Now that it is going to be separate from the EU, what does this do to the economy and how much is the investment going to decrease going forward?

The report also details the impact Brexit is going to have on the automotive aftermarket industry. Given the huge amount of parts and services that are both imported and exported between the UK and the EU, a soft Brexit deal is critical to the continued successful functioning of this trade.

The report also discusses how much this is going to cost the end customer and businesses in the aftermarket trade, especially suppliers who manufacture the parts and installers that service end customers vehicles.


  • Executive Summary
    • Executive Summary—Key Findings
    • Executive Summary—Implications of Brexit
    • Executive Summary—Market Opportunity Analysis
  • Research Scope, Objectives, Methodology and Segmentation
    • Research Scope
    • Research Aims and Objectives
    • Key Questions this Study will Answer
    • Research Methodology
  • Potential Brexit Scenarios and Transition Out of EU
    • The Brexit Timeline
    • 6 Brexit Political Possibilities
    • Likely and Unlikely Brexit Scenarios
    • Brexit Scenarios—CETA/CETA Plus Scenario
    • Brexit Scenarios—No Deal (WTO) Scenario
    • Brexit Scenarios—Soft Brexit (Chequers) Scenario
    • Summary of Brexit Scenarios
    • Brexit Scenario-Based Economic Impact on the Automotive Industry
    • Transition Period Introduction
    • Transition Period Impact
  • Impact on the Industry
    • Automotive Trade Between UK and EU
    • Snapshot of UK and EU Automotive Trade Balances
    • Implications of Brexit
    • Total UK Vehicle Parc
    • Impact of Brexit on New Car Sales
    • Impact of Brexit on Vehicle Production
    • UK's Substantial Vehicle Manufacturing
    • Commercial Vehicle Production
    • Automotive Industry Investment Post-Brexit
    • UK Aftermarket and EU Trade
    • Impact of Brexit on the Aftermarket Industry
  • Mitigation Strategies
    • Automotive Brexit Mitigation Strategies
    • Mitigation Strategies for OEMs and Suppliers
    • Market Opportunity Analysis
  • Key Conclusions and Future Outlook
    • Key Conclusions
  • Growth Opportunity and company to Action
    • Growth Opportunities Emerging from Brexit
    • Strategic Imperatives for Success and Growth
  • The Last Word
    • The Last Word—3 Big Predictions

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