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Impact of Autonomous Mobility on the North American Automotive Aftermarket, Forecast to 2030

Impact of Autonomous Mobility on the North American Automotive Aftermarket, Forecast to 2030

The North American automotive landscape is witnessing steady change. Since 2010, vehicles have been seeing the increased presence of ADAS components. Autonomous technology is also seeing growing interest, and along with ADAS and autonomous cars, it comprises intelligent mobility. This trend will gain further traction once semi-autonomous vehicles garner momentum by the end of 2020, which will decrease the percent of non-ADAS vehicles in the total vehicle parc.

The growing adoption of intelligent mobility from 2020 to 2030 will ensure fewer collisions and lesser repairs. This insight sheds light on the penetration of various levels of autonomous vehicles, forecasts the impact of adoption on the general aftermarket, the macro impact, and the impact on parts and maintenance trends, and offers a collision service market forecast.

The key impact areas are eco driving, shared mobility, collision avoidance, congestion mitigation, connected maintenance, insurance incentives, and service complexity.

Research Highlights
The insight focuses on 2 specific scenarios, namely:
Low adoption of ADAS/autonomous vehicles (intelligent mobility)
High adoption of ADAS/autonomous vehicles (intelligent mobility)

Key Features
The key areas of analysis under these scenarios are as follows:
Impact on the overall VIO and its impact on non-ADAS-enabled vehicles from 2017 to 2030
Penetration of level 2 and level 3 autonomous vehicles along with ADAS-enabled vehicles from 2020 to 2030
Overall collisions expected during the period under study
Overall collision repair potential from 2017 to 2030 under the conservative adoption of intelligent mobility
Total revenue potential from collision repairs

Key Issues Addressed
What are the current and emerging trends in ADAS-enabled and autonomous vehicles? What are the likely adoption rates and the macro impact on the automotive aftermarket?
What are the vehicle sales and VIO scenarios for ADAS-enabled and autonomous vehicles?
What are the potential areas of impact on the US aftermarket – parts, maintenance trends, and collision?
How will the collision service market be impacted in terms of revenue growth or decline by the introduction of autonomous mobility?
What are the potential legislations and regulations that can drive or restrain the adoption of autonomous technology?

Key Conclusion
The total number of ADAS-enabled and autonomous cars on the road is expected to increase from 9% of the total VIO in 2017 to 82% in 2030. The increased adoption of ADAS and autonomous vehicles will be due to the higher emphasis on safety and green technology . Regular wear items, such as tires and brake pads, are likely to record declining replacement rates .Maintenance trends are anticipated to evolve as these vehicles will require less but more advanced maintenance, such as over-the-air (OTA) updates.


  • Executive Summary
    • Key Findings
    • Autonomous Mobility-Macro Impact on Vehicle Maintenance
    • Impact of Collision on the Repair Industry-Revenue Potential
    • Revenue Impact due to the Conservative Adoption of Intelligent Mobility
    • Revenue Impact due to the Optimistic Adoption of Intelligent Mobility
  • Research Scope, Objectives, Background, and Methodology
    • Research Scope
    • Research Aims and Objectives
    • Key Questions this Study will Answer
    • Research Background
    • Research Methodology
  • Definitions and Segmentation
    • Market Definitions
    • Vehicle Segmentation
  • Autonomous Vehicles and ADAS Technology-How Will The Market Develop?
    • ADAS/Autonomous Vehicles-SAE Definitions
    • Autonomous Cars-Definition and Capability Framework
    • ADAS Technology-Proliferation of Sensors and Capabilities
    • Autonomous Mobility-Industry and Technology Drivers
    • Autonomous Mobility-Impact on Overall Driving/Ownership Dynamics
    • Impact of Autonomous Mobility on Industry Stakeholders
  • ADAS/Autonomous Mobility-Technology Adoption Forecast
    • ADAS & Autonomous Cars Sales-Optimistic & Conservative Forecast
      • Table Impact of Autonomous Cars on the Automotive Aftermarket: ADAS and Autonomous Cars Sales Conservative and Optimistic Forecast, NA, 2017-2030
    • Intelligent Mobility and Its Impact on VIO-Low Adoption Outlook
      • Table Impact of Autonomous Cars on the Automotive Aftermarket: Impact of Intelligent Mobility on VIO - Low Adoption Outlook, NA, 2017-2030
    • Intelligent Mobility and Its Impact on VIO-High Adoption Outlook
      • Table Impact of Autonomous Cars on the Automotive Aftermarket: Impact of Intelligent Mobility on VIO - High Adoption Outlook, NA, 2017-2030
  • Impact of Autonomous Mobility on the Automotive Aftermarket and the Collision Service Market
    • Impact on Key Replacement Parts
    • Collision-Impact on the Automotive Industry
    • Collision Service Market Forecast Assumptions
    • Impact of Collision on the Repair Industry-Revenue Potential
    • Revenue Impact on Collision (Low ADAS/Autonomous Adoption)
      • Table Impact of Autonomous Cars on the Automotive Aftermarket: Low ADAS/Autonomous Adoption of Intelligent Mobility, NA, 2017- 2030
      • Table Impact of Autonomous Cars on the Automotive Aftermarket: Low ADAS/Autonomous Adoption on Collision Repair Revenue, NA, 2017-2030
    • Revenue Impact on Collision (High ADAS/Autonomous Adoption)
      • Table Impact of Autonomous Cars on the Automotive Aftermarket: High ADAS/Autonomous Adoption of Intelligent Mobility, NA, 2017- 2030
      • Table Impact of Autonomous Cars on the Automotive Aftermarket: High ADAS/Autonomous Adoption on Collision Repair Revenue, NA, 2017-2030
  • Growth Opportunities and Companies to Action
    • Growth Opportunity-Improve R&D and Supply of Sensor-based Components
    • Strategic Imperatives for Success and Growth
  • Conclusions and Future Outlook
    • The Last Word-3 Big Predictions
  • Appendix
    • Startups Enabling Autonomous Mobility, Global
    • Abbreviations and Acronyms Used

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