Global Powertrain Outlook 2015
Key Findings of the Study
Diesel technologies may witness gradual decline in Europe, while advanced gasoline technologies and energy recovery systems continue to grow. EVs are set to witness high growth across regions.
Diesel Outlook in Europe: Higher taxes and penalties for polluting diesel vehicles, and parallel schemes to bring out cleaner vehicle and alternative propulsion systems to the road has led to the decline of diesel penetration by to % in Europe. The decline may not be drastic because consumer preferences for higher fuel economy and diesel fuel keeps CO2 emissions lower for OEM fleets. However, with increased penetration of direct injection, downsizing and boosting in gasoline engines, the decline is expected to be more drastic, unless clubbed with high efficiency NOx and PM filters.
Advanced Gasoline Technologies to see Boosted Uptake: While North America, Japan, and Europe continue to witness significant advancements in injection and combustion systems, developing markets like India and Brazil also will witness advanced technologies penetrating into the market. Direct injected, twin boosted gasoline engines have been fitted in B/C segments and have been receiving significant market acceptance. This trend is expected to continue in the short term as OEMs find economies of scale in developing markets through regional pricing strategies.
Surge of High-speed ATs and DCTs: High-speed DCTs are expected to penetrate about % to % of total transmission market this year, as OEMs look for more options to improve fuel economy. North America will lead this trend with million to million units of high-speed transmissions in 2015, close to % of which will be 8-speed automatics.
Alternative Propulsion Outlook: Global sales of electric vehicles is expected to be nearly million in 2015 with BEVs and PHEVs achieving significant growth, as OEMs are set to expand their public and proprietary charging networks. In certain regions like China, higher upfront purchase costs for select EVs are leading to sluggish sales. This is driving OEMs to launch more Fuel Cell vehicles during the short and medium terms. Countries like Japan are also mooting incentives for FCVs.
Energy Recovery Systems: As demand for fuel economy ascends, who will bank on energy-on-demand systems to stretch fuel savings to a few more percentage points. Variable displacement coolant pumps, thermo-electric energy generation, and other cost-effective advanced thermal management packages will be extensively used, both in conventional ICEs and vehicles with alternative propulsion systems.
About this report
Global Powertrain Outlook Study for 2015 captures key powertrain technology trends across key markets around the globe. Key technologies and markets to watch out for in 2015 are discussed. Key highlights of 2014 for Europe, North America, Brazil, Japan, South Korea, and India have been explained. Emission control measures and their stringency in different markets have been studied to understand the bearing that they will have on powertrains. Outlook for gasoline direct injection and high-speed transmissions have been projected for 2015. Key technologies and trends in gasoline, diesel, and alternative propulsion systems have been comprehensively discussed. Frost and Sullivan's key predictions for 2014 have been compared to actual updates to determine their accuracy.
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