Global Powertrain Outlook 2015

Global Powertrain Outlook 2015

Key Findings of the Study

Diesel technologies may witness gradual decline in Europe, while advanced gasoline technologies and energy recovery systems continue to grow. EVs are set to witness high growth across regions.

Diesel Outlook in Europe: Higher taxes and penalties for polluting diesel vehicles, and parallel schemes to bring out cleaner vehicle and alternative propulsion systems to the road has led to the decline of diesel penetration by 􂀀 to 􂀀% in Europe. The decline may not be drastic because consumer preferences for higher fuel economy and diesel fuel keeps CO2 emissions lower for OEM fleets. However, with increased penetration of direct injection, downsizing and boosting in gasoline engines, the decline is expected to be more drastic, unless clubbed with high efficiency NOx and PM filters.

Advanced Gasoline Technologies to see Boosted Uptake: While North America, Japan, and Europe continue to witness significant advancements in injection and combustion systems, developing markets like India and Brazil also will witness advanced technologies penetrating into the market. Direct injected, twin boosted gasoline engines have been fitted in B/C segments and have been receiving significant market acceptance. This trend is expected to continue in the short term as OEMs find economies of scale in developing markets through regional pricing strategies.

Surge of High-speed ATs and DCTs: High-speed DCTs are expected to penetrate about 􂀀% to 􂀀% of total transmission market this year, as OEMs look for more options to improve fuel economy. North America will lead this trend with 􂀀 million to 􂀀million units of high-speed transmissions in 2015, close to 􂀀% of which will be 8-speed automatics.

Alternative Propulsion Outlook: Global sales of electric vehicles is expected to be nearly 􂀀million in 2015 with BEVs and PHEVs achieving significant growth, as OEMs are set to expand their public and proprietary charging networks. In certain regions like China, higher upfront purchase costs for select EVs are leading to sluggish sales. This is driving OEMs to launch more Fuel Cell vehicles during the short and medium terms. Countries like Japan are also mooting incentives for FCVs.

Energy Recovery Systems: As demand for fuel economy ascends, who will bank on energy-on-demand systems to stretch fuel savings to a few more percentage points. Variable displacement coolant pumps, thermo-electric energy generation, and other cost-effective advanced thermal management packages will be extensively used, both in conventional ICEs and vehicles with alternative propulsion systems.

About this report

Global Powertrain Outlook Study for 2015 captures key powertrain technology trends across key markets around the globe. Key technologies and markets to watch out for in 2015 are discussed. Key highlights of 2014 for Europe, North America, Brazil, Japan, South Korea, and India have been explained. Emission control measures and their stringency in different markets have been studied to understand the bearing that they will have on powertrains. Outlook for gasoline direct injection and high-speed transmissions have been projected for 2015. Key technologies and trends in gasoline, diesel, and alternative propulsion systems have been comprehensively discussed. Frost and Sullivan's key predictions for 2014 have been compared to actual updates to determine their accuracy.

  • Executive Summary
    • Key Findings of the Study
    • Key Highlights of 2014
    • 2014 Global Powertrain Market in Perspective-Actuals vs. Forecast
    • Global Powertrain Mix-Unit Shipment by Region Snapshot
    • Key 2015 Powertrain Market Trends
    • Market Breakdown by Segment and Propulsion Type
    • Powertrain Technology Development-OEM Focus
    • Global Powertrain Split by Propulsion Type-Unit Shipment 2013-2015
    • Key Powertrain Technologies and Trends to Watch
    • Top Predictions for 2015
  • Research Scope and Segmentation
    • Research Scope
    • Vehicle Segmentation
  • Regional Powertrain Outlook
    • Europe-Unit Production Forecast
    • Europe-Unit Shipment Forecast
    • Europe-Emissions Risk Level Mapping, 2014 Scenario
    • Europe-Emissions Risk Level Mapping, 2020 Outlook
    • Europe-Unit Shipment Trend, Diesel vs. Gasoline
    • North America-Unit Shipment Forecast by Powertrain Mix and OEM
    • North America-Unit Shipment Forecast by Powertrain Mix and Vehicle Segment
    • North America-Emission Risk Mapping: US
    • China-Unit Shipment Forecast by Powertrain Mix
    • China-Key Technology Adoption Outlook, 2020
    • Japan-Unit Production Forecast by OEM and Propulsion
    • Japan-Unit Production Forecast by Segment
    • South Korea-Unit Shipment Forecast by OEM & Powertrain Mix
    • South Korea-Unit Shipment Forecast by Vehicle Segment and Powertrain Mix
    • South Korea-Powertrain Impact Measure-ICE and Electrics
    • India-Unit Shipment Forecast by Powertrain Mix and OEM
    • India-Unit Shipment Forecast by Powertrain Mix and Vehicle Segment
    • India-Diesel vs. Gasoline-Retrospection and Prediction
    • Brazil-Unit Production Forecast by OEM and Powertrain Mix
    • Brazil-Unit Production Forecast by Fuel Type and Vehicle Segment
    • Brazil-Impact Measure and Outlook, 2015-2020
    • Turkey-Unit Shipment by OEM and Propulsion
    • Turkey-Unit Shipment by Segment and Propulsion
    • ASEAN-Unit Shipment Forecast by Powertrain Mix
  • Emission Control Strategies-Overview Long Term
    • Global Comparison of Fuel Economy/GHG Standards-Passenger Cars
    • Global Comparison Powertrain Technology Focus
    • Country-level Impact Analysis, 2015-2020
  • 2015 Select Technology Outlook
    • Global Powertrain Focus Areas in 2015-Engine Outlook
    • Global Powertrain Focus Areas in 2015-Transmission Outlook
    • Powertrain Technology Update-Lightweighting
    • Powertrain Technology Update-Gasoline Boosting
    • GDI Unit Production Forecast by Region
    • SCR Unit Production Forecast-Key Regions, OEM Split for 2015
    • Growth Outlook-Mild Hybrids-Europe and North America, 2013-2015
    • Global EV Unit Shipments-Growth Outlook, 2013-2015
    • Technology Challenges-EV Batteries
    • E-motors uptake snapshot-Breakdown by Region
    • Sales by Region-Fuel Cell Vehicle Outlook
    • Transmission Unit Production Forecast by Type and Segment
    • High-speed Transmissions-Unit Shipment Forecast by Region and Technology
    • OEM High-speed Transmission Introduction Strategies, 2015-2016
  • Conclusions and Future Outlook
    • Key Conclusions and 2015 Outlook
  • Appendix
    • Table of Acronyms Used
    • Market Engineering Methodology

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