Global Medium/Heavy-duty Commercial Vehicle Market Outlook, 2020

Global Medium/Heavy-duty Commercial Vehicle Market Outlook, 2020

In 2019, global heavy-duty truck sales grew strongly in North America and South America and moderately in Europe and China, while declining in India. Currently, the COVID-19 pandemic is causing a wide-scale global supply chain disruption in all industries. The impact will be strongly felt across the US and European MD-HD markets, with a decline in freight demand due to lower industrial production and sharp economic contraction. China and India are expected to recover faster than developed nations on the backdrop of stricter measures and social distancing norms in place to mitigate the pandemic. However, strong stimulus packages with sector-specific incentives will help to reduce the economic impact of the COVID pandemic in different countries.

In the connected trucks market, telematics adoption will decrease, as OEMs’ sales decline and revenue growth stall in many countries at least until the second half of 2020. China will record single-digit growth rates for the first time owing to the COVID-19. The connected trucks section in this study highlights the key global regulations governing this space, installed base across trucks in different regions, regional telematics penetration, and top focus markets for key global telematics service providers.

Alternate powertrain technologies, including natural gas and electric, will be prioritized by major OEMs to mitigate the growing stringency of the upcoming greenhouse gas (GHG) regulations. However, low oil price and revenue impact due to the COVID pandemic will lead to fleets toward the diesel powertrain in the short term. The alternate powertrain section covers key OEM product platforms, use case analysis and market outlook for natural gas, electric trucks, and electric charging infrastructure.

On the autonomous front, Level 4 technology is still at a testing phase. As major OEMs compete to introduce driverless trucks in freight sections such as long haul and port, the market also has several start-ups showcasing their technology capabilities. Although the COVID-19 outbreak has halted many self-driving pilot programs and near-term investments of OEMs, in the long term, it will accelerate innovation in autonomous vehicles to compensate for labor shortages and for sanitizing streets. The autonomous section highlights the global legislative initiatives for the testing of autonomous commercial vehicles (CVs), use case analysis, OEM product platforms, and strategic partnerships among OEMs and suppliers for technology development.

The truck leasing market is witnessing the foray of major leasing companies into xEV leasing in partnership with traditional OEMs as well as new-age electric and fuel cell OEMs to gain an early-mover advantage in electric truck leasing space. With the implementation of IFRS 16, a new financial accounting standard from January 2019, multinational companies reporting under IFRS will account operational leases similar to financial leases. Leasing companies have started offering customers with extensive product portfolios through multiple touchpoints ranging from on-demand truck care to full supply chain services.

Additionally, the study includes sales forecasts for 2020 and trends into 2025 across North America, South America, Europe, China, India, Russia, Next 11, and Rest of the World.


  • Executive Summary
    • Key Highlights—2019
    • Global MD and HD Trucks Market Forecast—An Overview
    • CES 2020—Key Highlights from Truck OEMs
    • Top 6 Predictions for 2020
  • Research Scope, Objectives, Background, and Methodology
    • Research Scope
    • Research Aims and Objectives
    • Key Questions this Study will Answer
    • Research Background
    • Research Methodology
    • Key OEMs Compared in this Study
  • 2020 Global Economic Outlook—Executive Summary
    • COVID-19 Global Economic Impact—Visioning Scenarios
    • Global Economic Outlook 2020—Top 5 Predictions
    • 2020 World GDP Growth Snapshot
    • Major Economies—Key Predictions for 2020
  • Global MD-HD Trucks Market Outlook
    • Global MD and HD Trucks Market Forecast by Region
    • 2019 MD-HD Trucks OEM Sales Performance
    • 2020 Powertrain Technology Forecast
      • Table MD-HD Truck Market: Percent Powertrain Technology Forecast by Region, Global, 2020
    • Alternative Fuel Powertrain Market—Regional Market Share Analysis
  • Impact of COVID-19 on the MD-HD Trucks Market
    • COVID-19 Impact on MD-HD Sales in US, China, India, and Brazil
    • COVID-19 Impact on MD-HD Sales in EU Countries
    • COVID Impact—EU
    • COVID Impact—US, China, and UK
    • COVID Impact—India and Brazil
  • Connected Truck Telematics Market—Key Developments
    • Key Trends in the CV Telematics Market
    • Global Regulation and Mandates Influencing CV Telematics
    • Global Installed Base of Connected Trucks by Region—A Snapshot
    • Regional MD-HD Telematics Penetration
    • Regional Connected Truck Telematics Market—Service Revenue Analysis
      • Table Average Annual Service Package Price—2020
    • Top Global TSPs—Focus Markets
  • Alternate Powertrain Outlook—Global Electric Vehicle Outlook
    • Key Trends—Electric Trucks Market
    • Global Incentives for EV Purchase
    • Use Case Analysis for Electric Trucks
    • Electric Truck Market—2025 Outlook of Key Regions
    • OEM Product Platforms—Powertrain Flexibility Comparison
  • Special Focus—Electric Charging Infrastructure Market
    • DC Charger Types and Standards
    • Factors Driving EV Infrastructure Development
    • Global Electric Charging Infrastructure Incentives
    • Key Participants in the EV Charging Infrastructure Value Chain
    • Use Case Analysis for Charging Types
    • Charging Equipment Market Demand—2025 Outlook of Key Regions
    • Charging Ecosystem—Value Mapping
  • Global Natural Gas Vehicle Outlook
    • Key Trends in the Natural Gas Trucks Market
    • Global Natural Gas Incentives Landscape
    • Use Case Analysis—Natural Gas Truck
    • Natural Gas Truck Market—2025 Outlook of Key Regions
    • OEM Product Platforms—Powertrain Flexibility Comparison
  • Global Conventional Powertrain Outlook
    • Key Trends in the Diesel Powertrain Market
    • Global Tractor Truck Standards for CO2 Reduction
    • Regional Market Differentiation
    • GHG and Fuel Efficiency—Technology Penetration
    • Key OEM Fuel Efficiency Strategies
  • Autonomous Driving in Trucking
    • Implementation Roadmap for Autonomous Trucks by Use Case
    • Global Legislative Initiatives for Testing of Autonomous CVs
    • Logistics
    • Autonomous L1 and L2 Vehicles Forecast—North America and Europe, 2025
    • Strategic Partnerships in the Industry
    • Product Pipeline of Major OEMs—ADAS and Autonomous Vehicles
    • Autonomous Companies to Look out for—A Frost & Sullivan Perspective
  • Special Focus—Leasing and Rental in the MD-HD Truck Market
    • Truck Funding and Mobility Solutions
    • Key Trends in Leasing Market
    • IFRS 16—New Financial Accounting Standard
    • MD, HD and Trailer Fleet Leasing Market—NA 2020 Outlook
    • Leasing Providers Foray in xEV Leasing
    • Product Offerings—Leasing and Rental Companies
  • Growth Opportunities and Companies to Action
    • Growth Opportunity Regulations and New Revenue Opportunities
    • Strategic Imperatives
  • Conclusions and Outlook
    • Key Conclusions and 2020 Outlook
  • Appendix
    • Partial List of Abbreviations/Expansions Used
    • Market Engineering Methodology

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