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Global Medium-Heavy Commercial Vehicle Market Outlook, 2018

Global Medium-Heavy Commercial Vehicle Market Outlook, 2018

Global medium-duty (MD) and heavy-duty (HD) trucks sales grew 29% in 2017 from 2016 because of 62.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) growth in China crossing the 1 million mark, along with 55.1% growth in Russia , 41.1% growth in Next 11, and 23% growth in India. In 2018, growth in North America, South America, Russia, Next 11, and RoW markets is expected to continue to be positive, while China, although over the 1 million mark in 2018, will be a smaller market than in 2017. South America is expected to put the prolonged downturn in sales to grow over 10% YoY in 2018. In 2017, HD trucks sales share increased by 5.5% to 66.6% of global MD-HD trucks sales. This was a reversal of the trend of growing share of MD trucks in the past few years on account of recovery of HD truck demand in HD markets of China, NA, and Europe. This was predominantly on account of China market growth, which resulted in MD-HD truck sales touching record levels of 1.45 million units in 2017 with recovery in manufacturing, rapid infrastructure building activities, implementation of anti-loading regulations, as well as China V emission standards.

In terms of new technology, electric powertrain and autonomous driving have emerged hot favorites. With prototype launches from a slew of conventional and new OEMs, full electric powertrain development is gathering industry attention. Daimler launched its Fuso eCanter MD truck and showcased its Urban e-truck concept. Volvo tested its hybrid vehicle for long haul applications. Cummins and Tesla showcased battery electric Class 7 and 8 prototypes respectively. Nikola and Toyota showcased fuel cell architectures for HD applications. Platooning is set to be commercialized in developed countries in 2018. Technology providers and OEMs will showcase higher levels of autonomous capabilities in different vocations, aided by safety regulations, and participants actively partnering with companies in the artificial intelligence and High Definition maps space. Freight technology solutions are also experiencing growth in the trucking industry with great interest among shippers and carriers in the adoption of supply chain visibility and orchestration solutions such as FourKites, MacroPoint, and 10-4. Adoption of these solutions is faster than digital brokerage solutions.

On the OEM front, alongside the minority stake buy-in by VW, Navistar pulled ahead post the EGR fiasco, to record a comeback in the HD market, growing market share to nearly 11–12% in 2017. This growth in sales has translated to the first full year of profit that the company has had in the last few years.

Some of the key trends to watch out for in 2018 will be the proliferation of supply chain orchestration solutions in the freight industry, developments in electric powertrain and autonomous driving technologies for commercial vehicle applications, alongside a slew of new product launches by truck OEMs which include Navistar's new A26 12.4L SCR engine, Scania's new P- and L-series, Volvo's new VNL series, Mack Anthem, Volvo FH and FM LNG, and several others.

Key Issues Addressed
What will be the size of the global truck market in 2018?
What are the key focus areas for new products in trucking?
What are some of the key truck markets to watch out for in 2018 and beyond?
What will the new product focus areas for 2018 and beyond?
What are the key new technologies in powertrain, components, and soft technologies?
What is the projected penetration of powertrain technologies across regions?

  • Executive Summary
    • 2017 Key Highlights
    • Potentially Disruptive Business Models
    • CV Market-Senior Management's Top-of-the-Mind Issues
    • Global GDP and Commercial Trucks Market-Growth Outlook: 2018
      • Table MD-HD Truck Market: GDP and CV Growth Outlook Overview, Global, 2018
    • Global MD and HD Trucks Market Forecast-Overview
    • Autonomous Trucking Ecosystem-Key Trends
    • Electric Truck Market-Key Developments
    • Top 6 Predictions
  • Research Scope, Objectives, Background, and Methodology
    • Research Scope
    • Research Aims and Objectives
    • Key Questions this Study will Answer
    • Research Background
    • Research Methodology
    • Key OEMs Compared in this Study
  • Global MD-HD Trucks Market Outlook
    • Global MD and HD Trucks Market Forecast-By Weight Segment
    • Global MD and HD Trucks Market Forecast-By Price Segment
    • Attractive MD and HD Trucks Segment by Region
    • MD-HD Trucks OEM Sales Performance
    • Powertrain Technology Forecast
      • Table MD-HD Truck Market: Percent Powertrain Technology Forecast by Region, Global, 2018
    • Alternative Fuel Powertrain Market-Regional Market Share Analysis
    • Key 2018 Market Introductions-Driver Safety Stays Favorite
  • 2018 Connected Truck Telematics Market-Key Developments
    • Frost & Sullivan Regional Predictions-Key Talking Points
    • Pursuit of Emerging Markets and Expanding Global Coverage
    • Key Regulations and Mandates-A Snapshot
    • OEM Solutions and Dedicated Providers
      • Table Connected Truck Telematics Outlook: OEM Solutions, Global, 2018
    • Tier 1 Suppliers' Continued Run in the Connected Truck Industry
  • Electric Truck Ecosystem Developments
    • Electric Truck Market-Key Developments
    • Electric Truck Market-By Weight Segment and Region
    • Electric Driveline-Architectures in Consideration
    • Electric Axle-Key Market Developments
    • Future of Battery Technology
    • Charging Infrastructure-Nomenclature
    • Fast Charging Infrastructure-Charging Interface Initiative (CharIN e. V.)
  • Truck-as-a-Service
    • Digitization Enabling Service/Solution Model Evolution
    • Leveraging Big Data and Digital Technologies
    • Global Truck Retailing Digitization Investment
    • New Trucks Sales Go Online
    • Digital Services
    • MAN Truck & Bus UK
    • Electric Truck Leasing Services
    • Nikola Motors' TaaS Value Proposition
  • Autonomous Trucking Technologies
    • Autonomous Trucking Ecosystem-Key Trends
    • From ACC to Autonomous Technology
    • ADAS Functional Systems
    • Data Fusion on Typical Sensor Suite for ADAS Application
    • Distributed Processing
    • Centralized Processing
    • Need for 48V-Impact of Automated Driving on E/E Architecture
  • Special Focus A-China
    • China MD-HD Trucks Market Forecast-2025
    • China MD-HD Truck Market Growth Forecast-2018
    • MD-HD Trucks OEM Sales Performance
    • Infrastructure Overview
    • Key Growth Opportunities in Chinese Truck Market
    • Emission Standard of China IV and China V
    • Chinese Government NEV Development Plan
    • Most Popular Trucks in China
  • Special Focus B-LATAM
    • LATAM MD-HD Trucks Market Forecast-2025
    • MD-HD Trucks OEM Sales Performance
    • Engine Size Forecast
    • Future of Urban Trucking Exhibit-TruckPad
    • Future of Urban Trucking Exhibit-TruckPad: Product Portfolio
  • Growth Opportunities and Companies to Action
    • Growth Opportunity 1
    • Growth Opportunity 2
    • Growth Opportunity 3
    • Strategic Imperatives
  • Conclusions and Outlook
    • Key Conclusions and 2018 Outlook
  • Appendix
    • Table of Acronyms Used
    • Upcoming Topics in the Commercial Vehicles Research Program
    • Market Engineering Methodology

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