Global Economic Tracker—Insights and Trends (GET—IT)—Emerging Europe Quarter 4, 2013
The Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Turkey, and Ukraine have been classified as Emerging European countries in this study. Steady growth is anticipated here in H1 2014, as the sovereign debt crisis is gradually retreating. Economic activities in the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Romania are expected to get a boost due to improved export and domestic demand. Monetary and fiscal policy adjustments are likely to yield favorable results in Poland and Turkey from Q1 2014. As Ukraine’s huge debt burden has pushed the country into recession, business confidence is at an all-time low.
Lack of business (or consumer) confidence, financial restraints, and uncertainty in the market are the immediate areas of concern for major emerging economies in Europe.
The Czech Republic
Improvement in external demand, an increase in public investment, and better consumer confidence are expected to drive the economy in H1 2014.
Exports and domestic demand are expected to be the main growth drivers in the upcoming quarters, while high level of unemployment remains an area of concern.
Fiscal consolidation is expected to further reduce government spending in H1 2014, whereas the weakening currency is expected to boost exports.
The main expected growth driver for Q1 2014 is domestic demand, backed by increased private investment and consumption.
Lowering of interest rates by the country’s central bank, and a relatively stable fiscal policy are expected to accelerate Turkey’s economic growth in H1 2014.
Ukraine The economy is vulnerable to external shocks. The investment scenario remains gloomy in H1 2014 due to the huge debt burden. Growth in the agricultural sector may boost the economy slightly.
Electronic Access - Single User Fulfilled By Publisher
Electronic Access - Global Site License Fulfilled By Publisher