Global Economic Outlook, 2019

Global Economic Outlook, 2019

What is the outlook for the world economy in 2019? How will events such as Brexit and trade wars influence the global economic outlook? This analysis has been designed to answer these questions and more by providing a concise summary of key global and regional economic developments and forecasts. Regions covered as part of the study include North America, Latin America, Africa, Europe, the Middle East, and Asia-Pacific. Each regional economic outlook section focuses on the GDP growth outlook for key economies, impact analysis of key economic developments, and top economic predictions.

Although global GDP growth was steady in 2018, the growth is expected to dip in 2019 in the light of factors such as trade tensions, interest rate hikes, and emerging market capital outflows. A major risk to the global economic growth is the intensification of trade wars in 2019, with trade war escalation to pull down GDP growth further than projected. Apart from the United States and China that are experiencing the direct negative effects of the trade wars, major economies such as Germany and Japan are also at risk owing to indirect effects from the US–China trade wars. This study factors in three likely trade war scenarios for 2019, namely the continuation scenario, the intensification scenario, and the conclusion scenario, with the continuation scenario (continuation of tariffs imposed in 2018) carrying the highest probability of occurrence at present. Consequently, 2019 projections have been developed based on the continuation scenario (unless otherwise mentioned).

The last few weeks of 2018 saw several major developments that will have important ratifications on the 2019 economic outlook, such as the finalization of the Brexit withdrawal agreement and the decision of the OPEC to pursue production cuts in 2019. This report factors the implications of these and other events on the global economy as well as on specific concerned countries. Business can leverage this study to understand growth trajectories and the implications of economic developments, and thereby better plan and strategize for 2019. The base year for the report is 2017, with estimates for 2018, and forecasts for 2019.

Key Issues Addressed
What are the top 2019 global economic predictions?
What were the top 2018 global economic trends?
What are the top 2019 predictions for key advanced and emerging economies?
What is the world GDP growth snapshot for 2017–2019?
What is the economic outlook for North America, Latin America, Africa, Europe, the Middle East, and Asia-Pacific?
What are the key global economic risks for 2019?
How will major events such as Brexit and trade wars influence the world economy?
What is the trade war scenario-based outlook for world GDP growth and trade growth?
What is the 2019 outlook for oil supply, demand, and prices?
What major economic policy changes could businesses expect in 2019?