Global Autonomous Driving Market Outlook, 2018
2018 will see the first true deployment of automation where the vehicle will tell the driver with the first level 3 (L3) autonomous capability by taking the driver out of the loop to be introduced next year. Ironically, this may happen through a software patch update or a flagship generational product launch. Regardless of the medium through which this happens, it will be the first true start to the journey of automation. Currently most major OEMs and tier 1 suppliers are looking at exploring the benefits of developing applications focused on the convergence of the three technology pillars: Connected, Autonomous, and Electric. However, the true potential of each of these technology pillars can be tapped only by the marriage of technology and service pillars of the industry. Within the service pillar, there are elements – firstly, the vehicle itself [leasing]; secondly, the services that can be leveraged by the vehicle [mobility]; and thirdly, data-driven services [IoT Platforms].
There is a growing need for improving vehicle perception capabilities, which will create opportunities for both existing sensors to proliferate as well as new sensing technologies to emerge. Bad and complex driving conditions are still not addressed by today's autonomous test systems and one of the keys to real-world deployment would be the improvement of visions applications. Within this growth of sensors per car, many OEMs will be finalizing their sensor suite by L3 and incrementally adding sensors to address other levels. For example, Tesla has already frozen its suite for L3 and L4 automation, while others are expected to have diverse sensor suite designs for fully autonomous and partial autonomous applications. There can possibly be no one winner in the autonomous race but the true possibility of tapping the potential on autonomous technology is by creating a strong ecosystem with the customer being at the center. For this, it will be essential to look outside of the value chain focused on service-centric solutions with a partnership-based value chain. Between now and the 2030 milestone, there are numerous hurdles, both quantitative and qualitative, that the industry will need to tackle if autonomous driving has to bring a long-lasting impact to make safe, clean, and lean transportation a reality. The biggest hurdle today though is the lack of clear regulatory frameworks that define the outlines of how these products can be made available to the consumers. Statistically, even in a mid scenario, where autonomous emergency braking is mandated before 2020 and fully autonomous technology is made available commercially in the next decade, it will take more than 25 years from then to bring road fatalities to zero.
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