Disruptive COVID-19 Challenging the ASEAN Automotive Market, 2020

Disruptive COVID-19 Challenging the ASEAN Automotive Market, 2020

In 2019, the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) sold a total of 3.5 million units of vehicles. It experienced a market decline of 2.9% year-on-year (YoY). The main reasons include the direct impact of global economic slowdown on automotive sales and the decline in sales due to the election in Indonesia, which is the leader in ASEAN, with 29.8% share.

Nevertheless, ASEAN has consistently maintained its position as the world’s 6th largest automotive market. Passenger vehicles (PVs) made up 65.3% of the market and commercial vehicles (CVs) constituted 34.7%. Indonesia, Thailand, and Malaysia accounted for 76.4% of ASEAN’s automotive market.

In 2020, the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic forced most affected countries to shut down production and reduce operations, including the manufacturing of complete vehicles, automotive parts, and components. Automotive and transportation is one of the major industrial sectors impacted by the COVID-19 outbreak.

Automotive demand has been affected due to global economic slowdown, reduced GDP, lower consumer confidence, demand supply shocks, and liquidity challenges. In addition, COVID-19 will further influence the automotive market’s activities, including social distancing implementation and increasing the barriers of in-store interaction, test drive, and retail visit. Hence, it will make automotive purchases less attractive in Indonesia, Thailand, and Malaysia.

Positive government interventions such as fiscal injections in Indonesia, Thailand, and Malaysia in 2020 are likely to minimize the economic slowdown in these countries. In addition, automotive production development and investment from foreign original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) in Thailand and the income tax incentives offered by the Indonesian Government (up to 20 years of full corporate tax exemption) are likely to make production attractive for the automotive market.

Japanese automotive brands lead the ASEAN market. Toyota, Honda, Mitsubishi, Nissan, and Isuzu are the key contributors in Indonesia, Thailand, and Malaysia. Proton in Malaysia grew significantly in 2019, it surpassed Honda and increased its share by 6% to became the second-biggest OEM in passenger vehicle market.

Engine downsizing and electric vehicle (EV) development penetrate further. For example, in Indonesia, with the development and promotion of low-cost green cars, OEMs such as Toyota and Hyundai planned to invest in EV production capacity in the long term. On the other hand, Thailand aims to become an EV hub by 2025. OEMs are expected to further promote Industry 4.0 and invest EV-related factories.

The study provides a strategic analysis of the growth environment and analysis of the automotive market in Indonesia, Thailand, and Malaysia. The research defines key market trends and overall impact levels that will influence the automotive market in 2020. It also presents an overview of the sales market for passenger vehicles and commercial vehicles during the historic and forecast periods.


  • Executive Summary
    • Key Findings
    • Total Industry Volume (TIV) in Key ASEAN Markets
    • Top Trends for 2020
  • Research Scope, Objectives, and Methodology
    • Research Scope
    • Research Aims and Objectives
    • Research Methodology
  • Product Segmentation
  • Strategic Imperatives
    • The Strategic Imperative 8™
    • Automotive Industry and the Strategic Imperative 8™
    • Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine™
  • Growth Environment—Global COVID-19 Impact
    • Impact of COVID-19 on World GDP Growth
    • Impact of COVID-19 on Key Regions and Countries
    • Global Economic Outlook 2020—Top 5 Predictions
  • Growth Environment—ASEAN Automotive Market in 2020
    • ASEAN—An Overview
    • TIV in Key ASEAN Markets
    • ASEAN TIV—Market Snapshot
    • Position of ASEAN Countries on the Growth Potential Curve
    • Emission Regulations in ASEAN
    • Global Ranking of ASEAN in Automotive Sales
      • Table Automotive Market: Ranking of ASEAN in Automotive Sales, Global, 2012, 2015, and 2019
    • Motorization in ASEAN
      • Table Automotive Market: Motorization Rates by Country, ASEAN, 2018 and 2019
  • Indonesian Automotive Outlook
    • Market Engineering Measurement
    • TIV Trends—2015 to 2019
    • Product Segmentation Under PV and CV in 2019
    • Key OEMs and Market Share
    • Key Market Trends Anticipated in Indonesia in 2020
    • Trend 1—Global Uncertainty: COVID-19 Effect
    • Trend 2—Income Tax Incentives Supported by the Government
    • Trend 3—Development and Promotion of Low-cost Green Cars
    • Trend 4—Positive Government Intervention
    • Trend 5—New Model Launches
    • TIV Forecast Scenario Analysis
      • Table Automotive Market: TIV Forecast Scenario Analysis, Indonesia, 2019–2025
    • Key Conclusions
  • Thai Automotive Outlook
    • Market Engineering Measurement
    • TIV Trends—2015 to 2019
    • Product Segmentation Under PV and CV in 2019
    • Key OEMs and Market Share
    • Key Market Trends Anticipated in Thailand in 2020
    • Trend 1—Global Uncertainty: COVID-19 Effect
    • Trend 2—Automotive Production Development and Investment
    • Trend 3—Positive Government Intervention
    • Trend 4—New Model Launches
    • Trend 5—Weak GDP Growth
    • TIV Forecast Scenario Analysis
      • Table Automotive Market: TIV Forecast Scenario Analysis, Thailand, 2019–2025
    • Key Conclusions
  • Malaysian Automotive Outlook
    • Market Engineering Measurement
    • TIV Trends—2015 to 2019
    • Product Segmentation Under PV and CV in 2019
    • Key OEMs and Market Share
    • Key Market Trends Anticipated in Malaysia in 2020
    • Trend 1—Global Uncertainty: COVID-19 Effect
    • Trend 2—Unstable Political Environment
    • Trend 3—Global Uncertainty: Oil Price Effect
    • Trend 4—New Model Launches
    • Trend 5—Positive Government Intervention
    • TIV Forecast Scenario Analysis
      • Table Automotive Market: TIV Forecast Scenario Analysis, Malaysia, 2019–2025
    • Key Conclusions
  • Growth Opportunity Universe
    • Growth Opportunity: Continued Market Development for ASEAN Automotive Sales, 2020
  • Appendix: Growth Pipeline Engine™
    • Table of Acronyms Used
  • Next Steps
    • Your Next Steps
    • Why Frost, Why Now?

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