Aluminum (Al) Rods and Conductors Market in Africa, 2017
Africa is the focus of the global economy due to its vast untapped natural resources are a key driver for development. Rural electricity demand still remains insignificant, while urban and industrial supply remains insufficient in most of Africa. With aid from global governments, demand is expected to witness growth of 3.5% for wire rods and 5.2% for conductors. Many investment programmes have been planned for T&D, and this is expected to provide export opportunities for global wire rod and conductor manufacturers. This industry docket looks at the current scenario, dynamics and trends prevalent in the African aluminum rods and conductors market. Key questions this docket will answer:
1. What is the supply structure of the African aluminium wire rods and conductors market?
2. How is the manufacturing ecosystem expected to evolve in Africa?
3. What are the trade dynamics of aluminium rods and conductors?
4. What are the drivers, restrains and challenges impacting the wire rods and conductors market?
5. What are the value chains and key modes of supply of aluminium conductors to T&D utilities?
6. What are the key factors for success in the African market?
- Frost & Sullivan – Introduction
- Frost & Sullivan Advisory
- The global aluminum rods market is witnessing a CAGR of 2.16%. Africa and ASEAN to record the strongest growth at 4-5%
- Global programmes for inter-regional cooperation to promote and aid electrification over the long term
- Almost 50% of Africa's population has no access to grid electricity; Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Liberia, Nigeria, and Tanzania prioritising this
- Electrification programmes to result in conductor manufacturers seeking new suppliers with competitive pricing: Cost competitiveness is key differentiator
- Backward and forward integration and product focus with competitive pricing will ensure success in the African T&D segment
- EPC contractors are the vital link in Africa's T&D value chain; ACSR and AAC are mainly catered by imports
- Scope & Limitations
- Key Market Takeaways: Africa
- Explosive population growth and thence demand drive utilities' installation and conductors demand
- 9.5mm EC grade consumption is predominant, and will continue to account for highest share of wire rod demand in the long term
- Investment in Nigeria, Angola & S. Africa for T&D and new hydropower capacity in Congo, Ethiopia, Guinea & Mozambique to drive conductors market
- Major regional conductor manufacturers: Elsewedy Electric (Egypt), M-TEC (S. Africa) &Nexans Maroc (Morocco)
- Demand-Supply Gap in Wire rods—Domestic supply insufficient; Opportunities available for global wire rod producers to utilise excess capacity by exporting to Africa
- Sustained government effort to improve national economy will directly impact T&D growth, and drive wire rod demand
- Key Demand Driver—Electricity sector to require USD 345-Bn investment for wires infrastructure: transmission (USD 80 billion) and distribution (USD 265 billion)
- Conductors demand primarily fulfilled by imports; ACSR will continue to be highest imported grade due to its favourable technical specifications
- WAPP & SAPP to connect energy sources across Congo, Angola, Namibia Botswana, South Africa, Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia, and Zimbabwe
- Egypt's T&D Segment—International electric interconnections between Libya, Egypt, Jordan, Syria & Lebanon. In 2016, 8 power stations added 3,600+ MW to NEG* at USD 2.7Bn
- Robust Transmission & Distribution Segment in Algeria—Conductor production set to increase to cater to nearby Middle East and European markets (French standards)
- Robust Transmission & Distribution Segment in Kenya—By 2020 the country's projected installed energy capacity will triple from 2,177 MW to 6,766 MW, with geothermal contributing around 2,000 MW
- Robust Transmission & Distribution Segment in Nigeria—One of the largest economies in Africa, it is a frontrunner in T&D investment, with increased electricity generation capacity, and private ownership
- Robust Transmission & Distribution Segment in South Africa—Surplus generation & low demand due to slowdown of mining & industrial activity. Replacement of power lines expected to be a growth driver
- Egypt & Nigeria growth leaders due to increasing PPP & innovative solutions for financial constraints; poor electricity revenues, regulatory regimes hinder growth
- Africa remains an import dependent market for wire rods and conductor grades due to increasing importance of electrification
- EPC contractors liaise with approved suppliers to form a collaborative supply chain network
- Collaboration with EPC Contractors will lead to smooth distribution
- Competitive Prices, Quality, Technical Capability and Proximity are the key factors that influence T&D Utilities in supplier approval
- The Industry going Forward
- RECP supports development of renewable energy in Africa— Highest renewable energy capacity & leaders in T&D investment are S. Africa, Egypt, Morocco, Congo & Zambia
- Africa—5 Smart cities by 2030 at USD ~60Bn of PPP funding. Changing demographics, T&D projects commissioning, increasing privatisation to lead to growth
- The growth of urbanisation and mega cities: key driver which mandates the need for a robust transmission network
- Electricity demand to double by 2030 requiring new utilities; cost effective and efficient electricity is a priority for governments
- The demand for wire rods and conductors will continue to grow due to governments' impetus on infrastructure development and rural electrification
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