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South Africa 2024: Outlook and Scenarios

South Africa 2024: Outlook and Scenarios

Overview

The next five years - which coincide with the governing African National Congress party's next political term in office - will see South Africa gradually emerge from a decade of economic stagnation and institutional decline. MNCs can expect some improvements in customer demand and the operating environment as a result of the interplay between three main factors: ongoing structural challenges, the global economic context, and incremental economic reforms. Improvements in economic conditions will be gradual and uneven, however, resulting in diverging performance across industries and customer segments. In some cases this will create new opportunities, but in others it will heighten risks and costs. To win, multinationals need to plan effectively by basing their strategies on realistic assumptions, tracking the macroeconomic leading indicators impacting their industry and customers, and using scenarios to mitigate downside risks.

What you will learn

  • Specific drivers of South Africa's five-year outlook
  • Industry-specific outlooks for the South African market
  • Actions for multinationals to take to win in the region
What you will receive
  • Immediate access to the 56-page PDF report
  • Exclusive email updates covering emerging markets business topics
  • Special discounts on future report purchases


Executive Summary
A Core Market in Emerging EMEA...
...That Offers Opportunities Across Industries
The Next Five-Year Political Term Offers a New Era
But Winning Will Not Be Easy
Drivers of South Africa's Five-Year Outlook
Drivers of South Africa's Five-Year Outlook
Structural Challenges: High Unemployment
Structural Challenges: Limited Skills Base
Structural Challenges: Natural Resource Pressures
Structural Challenges: Inadequate Infrastructure
Structural Challenges: Statist Economic Model
Structural Challenges: Racial Inequality
Structural Challenges: Uneven Development
Global Economy: Growth and Export Demand
Global Economy: FX Pressures and Capital Flows
Global Economy: Commodity Prices
Global Economy: Trade Policy
Global Economy: Foreign Direct Investment
Government Reform: Private Sector Development
Government Reform: Fiscal Policy
Government Policy: Wealth Redistribution
Government Policy: Anti-Corruption Drive
Government Policy: Health Policy
Five-Year Outlook
Slow Growth Will Likely Persist
2019 Election Sets the Political Scene
Consumer Demand Will Expand Slowly and Unevenly
B2B Demand Will See Fractional Improvements
Public Sector Demand Will Take Time to Recover
FX Volatility and Price Pressures Will Persist
Industry Outlooks
Industry Outlook: Automotive
Industry Outlook: Non-Automotive Manufacturing
Industry Outlook: Mining
Industry Outlook: Construction
Industry Outlook: Technology
Industry Outlook: Agriculture
Industry Outlook: Consumer Retail
Industry Outlook: Healthcare
Scenarios and Disruptors
South Africa 2019-2024: Scenarios Overview
Base Case: Growth Slowly Improves
Downside: Growth Slows Further
Upside: Economy Accelerates
Disruptors Summary
Disruptor 1: US-China Economic Cold War
Disruptor 2: Global Liquidity Crisis
Disruptor 3: Middle East Oil Supply Outages
Disruptor 4: Rapid African Trade Integration
Disruptor 5: Ramaphosa is Removed
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