Saudi Arabia 2020: Outlook and Scenarios

Saudi Arabia 2020: Outlook and Scenarios


Saudi Arabia is one of EMEA’s top emerging markets, but the country faces a tough road as it attempts to implement an extraordinarily ambitious economic transformation plan. With external macroeconomic headwinds and serious demographic pressures, there is no turning back.

Regardless of whether the authorities can achieve their 2030 goals, their attempts at reform will impact business performance in the kingdom. DuckerFrontier believes that Saudi Arabia will largely remain on track with its reform plans, but it will be an incremental process: we only expect average annual GDP growth of 2% YOY between 2017 and 2020.

In the context of such a dramatic economic transformation, businesses will need to significantly adjust expectations for the market. Companies that prioritize localization, market share gains, and operational excellence will be in a position to outmaneuver competitors.

What you will learn

  • What is the outlook for doing business in Saudi Arabia
  • How will the upcoming reforms impact the business environment
  • Learn about the key events that could disrupt Saudi Arabia's outlook
What you will receive
  • Immediate access to the 40-page PDF report
  • Exclusive email updates covering emerging markets business topics
  • Special discounts on future report purchases

Executive Summary
Understanding Saudi Arabia’s Trajectory
Saudi Arabia Is a Top MENA Market for MNCs ...
... But Its Oil Dependece Can’t Be Maintained
Demographic Pressures Create Urgency
External Headwinds Cannot Be Ignored
Regime Must Manage Numerous Risks
Preparing for Saudi Reforms
The Government is Committed to Reforms
Adapt Business to Changes in the Kingdom
Increasing Non-Oil Revenues
VAT Scenarios
Budget Reform: Subsidy Reductions
Rationalize Expenditures
Targeting the Growth of Key New Sectors
Easing the Business Environment
Rising Localization Pressures
Saudi Arabia 2020: Scenarios Overview
Saudi Arabia 2020: Scenarios Overview
Base Case: Modest Growth
Downside: Economy Stalls
Upside: Outperforming Expectations
Key Events Could Disrupt Saudi Arabia’s Outlook
Key Disruptors to Saudi Arabia’s Outlook
Oil Stabilizes Below US$ 30/BBL.
Oil Price Increase Detracts Reform Agenda
Break of Royal-US Dollar Peg
Political Instability Disrupts Business39
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