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2016 Middle East & North Africa Outlook

2016 Middle East & North Africa Outlook

Overview

Although business activity in the Middle East & North Africa is not grinding to a halt, business and consumer sentiment are being shaken by low oil prices, political instability, and ongoing conflicts.

Slowing growth in the region’s biggest markets leaves less room for error in execution, and companies will need to work hard to capture demand in a variety of regional markets, rather than simply relying on large Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) markets to compensate for difficulties elsewhere.

In particular, companies that hope to capture long-term opportunities in Algeria, Egypt, and Iran must implement growth plans sooner rather than later in order to stay ahead of competition.

Strong competition in stable but slow-growth markets will force companies to demonstrate value, adjust pricing, and maximize the capabilities of local partners, while market share will remain critical in less-certain markets where big opportunities will emerge only in the medium term.

What you will learn

  • What are the main drivers shaping the outlook for the Middle East & North Africa region
  • How will the country and sub-regional outlooks for key markets like Iran, GCC, and North Africa evolve
  • Which scenarios and disruptors will have the greatest impact on the region


Executive Summary
Section 1: FSG View on Middle East & North Africa (MENA)
  Look Past Sub-Regions for Long-Term Plans
  Overview: FSG View on MENA
  MENA Short-Term Outlook is Mixed
  Portfolio Approach is Key for MENA
  Drivers Impact MENA Markets in Many Ways
  Driver #1: High Total Public Spending
  Driver #2: Moderate Consumer Spending
  Driver #3: Low Energy Prices
  Driver #4: Mixed Political Stability
  Driver #5: Strong US Dollar
  Driver #6: Muted Global Export Demand
  Implications for Action
Section 2: Country Outlooks
  Levant Outlook
  Iraq Outlook
  Iran Outlook
  North Africa Outlook
  GCC Outlook
Section 3: Scenarios & Performance Disruptors
  Scenarios Overview
  Disruptors Summary
  Disruptor #1: Economic Crisis in China
  Disruptor #2: Oil Stabilizes at US$ 15-20/BBL
  Disruptor #3: Schengen Area Disruption
  Disruptor #4: MENA Security Unravels
  Disruptor #5: Cyber Attacks
About Frontier Strategy Group

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