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2018 Latin America Outlook

2018 Latin America Outlook

Overview

Latin America (LATAM) is poised for higher growth in 2018 as domestic demand conditions improve and political uncertainty subsides on the back of key presidential elections in Colombia, Mexico, and Brazil.

B2C companies will confront consumers with greater purchasing power on the back of lower inflation and interest rates. B2B companies will benefit from greater business performance across industries. Commodity price stabilization will ease fiscal pressures for commodity-exporting countries, but greater commitment to prudent spending will limit the extent to which B2G companies can benefit from public discretionary spending.

Multinational executives will need to focus on aligning their local teams around growth strategies to capture pent-up demand, while continuing to manage persisting global and regional risks.

What you will learn

  • What are the main drivers shaping the business landscape for the Latin America region
  • How will foreign exchange (FX) conditions impact econmic growth
  • What implications regional and global drivers will have on market prioritization, competitive dynamics, customer behavior and Latin America's operating environment
  What you will receive
  • Immediate access to the 94-page PDF report
  • Exclusive email updates covering emerging markets business topics
  • Special discounts on future report purchases
 


Executive Summary
Latin America in the Global Context
Global Growth Will Accelerate Slightly
LATAM’s Growth Will Remain Low
Improving Profitability Will Be Key
LATAM Remains Attractive for Business
Operating Conditions Are Relatively Good
FSG View on Latin America and Scenarios
FSG View on Latin America
Key LATAM Trends for 2018
Economic Growth Will Accelerate in 2018
Lower Inflation Will Expand Consumption
Elections Will Resolve Political Uncertainty
Greater Stability Will Boost Investment
Elections Will Fail to Lift Public Spending
China’s Economy Will Continue to Slow
Commodity Prices Will Remain Stable
US Growth Will Continue to Be Moderate
GDP Dynamics Will Converge in 2018
Currencies Have Gained Against the USD
Currncies Will Remain at Current Levels
Market Disruption Risk Remains Elevated
LATAM in 2018: Scenarios Overview
FSG’s Bias Continues to Be to the Downside
Markets Assign Higher to Mercosur
Long-Term Outlook
LATAM’s Long-Term Outlook is Improving
Signposts for Prioritizing Investment
Progress on Reforms Has Varied
Business Implications
Business Implications of Regional Trends
Market Expansion is Increasingly Granular
Big Markets Will Concentrate Investment
Consumer Spending Will Accelerate
Consumers Will Start Trading Up
B2B Opportunities Alaign With Macro View
Public Budgets Will Remain Constrained
Pacific Alliance Will Deliver Better Results
FX Dynamics Will Start Favoring MNCs
Competitive Pressures Will Persist
Localizatio to Gain Market Share
M&A Has Lost Attractiveness
Operating Conditions Will Improve in 2018
Strategic Priorities for 2018
Strategic Priorities for 2018
Deepen Portfolio-Allocation Capabilities
Pursue Subnational Pockets of Opportunity
Localizing Is a Strategic Imperative
Develop a Localization Strategy
Reassess Customer Segments
Assess Premiumization Opportunities
Value-Added Services (VASs) Are Becoming Key
Monetization of VASs Is Not a Given
Manage for VAS Profitability
Assess Channel Partners’ Margin Impact
Build Distributors’ Capabilities
Align Channels for Growth
Anticipate Channel Transitions
Strengthen Government Engagement
Design Forward-Looking Dashboards
Establish Quarterly Business Risk Reviews
Leverage Contingency-Planning Tools
Improve Alignment and Resilience
Potential Disruptors of Latin America’s Performance
Market Disruption Risk Remains Elevated
Event #1: China Loses Control
Event #2: US-China Trade War
Event #3: Korean Conflict
Event #4: NAFTA Exit
Event #5: NAFTA Modernization
Event #6: Eurozone Crisis Renewed
Event #7: Brexit Canceled
Event #8: OPEC Deal Dismantlement
Event #9: Oil Supply Shortage
Event #10: Anti-Market Electoral Backlash
Event #11: Anti-Corruption Side Effects
Event #12: FARC Agreement Rollback
Event #13: Venezuela’s Half-Hearted Reform
Country Outlooks
Brazil Outlook
Mexico Outlook
Argentina Outlook
Colombia Outlook
Chile Outlook
Peru Outlook
Venezuela Outlook
Ecuador Outlook
Central America Outlook
Caribbean Outlook
About Frontier Strategy Group

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