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2016 Latin America Outlook

2016 Latin America Outlook

Overview

Latin America’s economy is set to contract for the second consecutive year in 2016, with limited upside potential in 2017. External headwinds, including depressed commodity prices, FX volatility, and uncertainty regarding demand prospects from Latin America’s main trading partners - China, the US and Europe - continue to constrain growth and are leading to higher inflation rates and deteriorating fiscal positions across the region.

In order to preserve macroeconomic stability, governments and central banks are expected to continue to implement preventive adjustment measures such as interest rate hikes and spending cuts, which will affect medium to long-term regional growth potential.

What you will learn

  • What is the long-term outlook for businesses investing in Latin America
  • Which macroeconomic and geopolitical scenarios matter most in 2016
  • Understand how regional trends tie into the outlook for Latin America's top economies


Executive Summary
Section 1: FSG View on Latin America
  FSG View on Latin America (Overview)
  GDP is Unlikely to Return to Earlier Highs
  Performance Will Continue to Diverge
  GDP Forecasts Reflect Divergent Outlooks
  China's Slowdown Will Limit Export Demand
  Weak Commodity Prices Hurt Growth
  Capital Outflows Will Foster FX Volatility
  Rising Interest Rates Will Limit Borrowing
  Fiscal Consolidation Will Be Widespread
  Consumption Will Continue to Stagnate
Section 2: Disruptors & Scenarios
  Key Events Could Disrupt LATAM's Outlook
  Event #1: China Hard Landing
  Event #2: Energy Price Collapse
  Event #3: Brazil Reverts to Populist Policies
  Event #4: Political Disorder in Venezuela
  Event #5: De-Dollarization in Ecuador
  Scenarios Envision a Tough Future for LATAM
Section 3: Long-Term Outlook
  LATAM's Long-Term Outlook is Cloudy
  Signposts for Prioritizing Investment
  Progress on Reforms Will Vary by Market
Section 4: Country Deep-Dives
  Brazil Outlook
  Mexico Outlook
  Argentina Outlook
  Venezuela Outlook
  Colombia Outlook
  Chile Outlook
  Peru Outlook
  Ecuador Outlook
About Frontier Strategy Group

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