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2017 CIS Outlook

2017 CIS Outlook

Overview

The only minimal rise in oil prices in 2017 – forecast to average US$ 43-53/bbl – will limit growth across the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) region.

The major energy exporters will continue to struggle because of their over-reliance on energy revenues to support growth, while non-commodity exporters will see growth rebound more strongly. Russia’s return to growth in 2017 will provide some assistance to regional growth as well, as export demand picks up and remittance flows stop contracting.

In light of prolonged low growth, multinational companies should continue to focus on customer segmentation, in order to manage extended weak customer purchasing power, while identifying pockets of opportunity in smaller markets with stronger growth potential to offset slower growth elsewhere in their portfolio.

What you will learn

  • What are the main drivers shaping the outlook for the Commonwealth of Independent States
  • How will the country-level outlooks for CIS markets like Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Tajikistan evolve
  • Which scenarios and disruptors will have the greatest impact on the region


Executive Summary
Section 1: 2017 CIS Outlook & Main Drivers
  FSG View on CIS Markets
  The Region Within EMEA Context
  Wide Divergences Exist in the Region
  Driver #1: Commodity Exports
  Driver #2: Russia's Weak Recovery
  Driver #3: China's Influence
  Driver #4: Public Spending
  Driver #5: Continued Currency Weakness
  Driver #6: Political Instability
  Recommendations for Action
Section 2: Country Outlooks
  Ukraine Outlook
  Belarus Outlook
  Moldova Outlook
  Kazakhstan Outlook
  Azerbaijan Outlook
  Armenia Outlook
  Georgia Outlook
  Turkmenistan Outlook
  Uzbekistan Outlook
  Kyrgyzstan Outlook
  Tajikistan Outlook
Section 3: Scenarios & Disruptors of Performance in 2017
  CIS in 2017: Scenarios Overview
  CIS in 2017: Disruptor Summary
  Disruptor #1: Succession Crises
  Disruptor #2: China Financial Market Crisis
  Disruptor #3: Ukraine Political Strife
  Disruptor #4: Oil Price Drop
  Disruptor #5: Destabilizing Political Crises
About Frontier Strategy Group

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