World Turbines -
World demand to rise 6.5% annually through 2016
The world market for turbines and related products (turbine-based engines, generators, and generator sets) is forecast to rise 6.5 percent annually to $165 billion in 2016. This will represent a deceleration from the pace of the 2006-2011 period, primarily caused by a slowdown in sales of wind turbines. The global wind turbine market expanded at an annual rate in excess of 20 percent between 2001 and 2011 to become the single largest turbine product segment, ahead of turbine engines. Wind turbines will continue to be the fastest growing turbine product type through 2016, but a much higher base of existing capacity will keep growth to a more moderate level.
Demand for gas combustion turbines is expected to accelerate to a 7.3 percent annual growth rate through 2016. The market for gas turbines will benefit from the ongoing global shale gas boom. The development of shale resources in the US has led to significantly lower gas prices in North America. Over the next decade, as the US expands its infrastructure for exporting gas overseas and other countries develop their own shale resources, global gas prices should fall substantially as well. This will lead to increased investment in natural gas plants for power generation, spurring expanded demand for gas turbines.
China, US to remain key turbine markets
Between 2006 and 2011, the global turbine market in China posted a 28 percent annual growth rate, by far the fastest in the world. The largest of these gains occurred in the wind turbine market, which saw demand multiply by a factor of more than 10. China has become the largest market for wind turbines in the world, accounting for 43 percent of existing global capacity in MW terms at year-end 2011. The fastest growth in turbine demand will occur in Australia, which is investing heavily in wind power in order to reduce its dependence on carbon.
Central and South America will register the fastest turbine demand growth among world regions through 2016, increasing 7.8 percent per annum through that year. Gains in that region will be headed by Brazil, which represents a strong growth market for both power generation turbines and turbine-based aircraft engines. The Africa/Mideast region will also post rapid gains, though it will remain a small regional market for turbine products.
The US, which is the second largest national market for turbine products behind China, will grow at an aboveaverage pace through 2016, aided by an expanding market for gas turbines in power generation applications and continued healthy gains in demand for wind turbines. Mexico, fueled by increasing development of wind power, will be the second fastest growing market for turbine products worldwide through 2016. Western Europe will remain the slowest growing regional market for turbine products, largely due to the maturity of its wind energy sector. However, the region still holds significant potential for offshore wind power, and gains in wind turbine demand will accelerate relative to the 2006-2011 period.