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Lubricants


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Lubricants

US demand to approach 2.5 billion gallons in 2018
US demand for lubricants is forecast to increase less than one percent per year through 2018, reaching nearly 2.5 billion gallons. Improved efficiency and less frequent oil replacement will be a common trend throughout lubricant markets, serving to restrain demand. Although growth will be modest, this will nonetheless represent a rebound from losses between 2003 and 2013 as manufacturing activity and economic growth pick up, supported by the country’s improving energy outlook. Moreover, there will be significant growth opportunities in key markets such as construction, heavy-duty trucks, and oil and gas production, and for premium products throughout a variety of lubricant markets.

Light vehicle market to see shift in product mix
The light vehicle market will experience an ongoing shift toward longer lasting, higher quality lubricants, leading to declining total volumes despite good prospects for synthetic engine oils. Light vehicles hold a unique position as both the largest market for lubricants and the one most visible to consumers. Improvements in vehicle technology and lubricant formulations will be rapid in this market, driven by an industrywide focus on greater fuel efficiency in cars and trucks. As the US light vehicle fleet gradually moves toward cars calling for very high quality, low viscosity oils, these types of products will continue to gain favor. Manufacturer and industry specifications such as the upcoming ILSAC GF-6 and General Motors’ current DEXOS standards will be influential in promoting these trends, as will marketing efforts by lubricant companies seeking to promote high value premium engine oils.

Nonvehicle markets to offer better volume growth
Better prospects for volume growth will exist in the construction, oil and gas, and machinery manufacturing markets. The US construction industry is expected to continue a strong recovery through 2018, and will be among the fastest growing lubricant markets. The oil and gas industry, which has seen rapid growth in drilling and exploration since 2006, will continue to provide rising demand for lubricants in oilfield and pipeline applications as well. Furthermore, natural gas prices are expected to remain low by historical standards through 2018, promoting a wide range of manufacturing and other industrial activity. Energy intensive industries such as the production of metals, motor vehicles, and machinery will all benefit. There will be implications for the electrical power industry as well, as greener energy sources such as natural gas and wind power supplant coal as preferred fuels.

Premium products hold the best growth opportunities
Among product types, some of the best opportunities will be for industrial and heavy-duty diesel engine oils, gas turbine oils, and industrial hydraulic fluids. There will be opportunities in most markets for premium products that can offer better lubrication, longer drain intervals, or increased environmental friendliness. Synthetic, re-refined, and bio-based oils will substantially outpace conventional petroleum lubricants overall.


  • INTRODUCTION
  • EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
    • Table LUBRICANT DEMAND
  • MARKET ENVIRONMENT
    • General
    • Macroeconomic Outlook
      • Table MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS
    • Manufacturing Outlook
      • Table MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS
    • Consumer Spending Outlook
      • Table PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
    • Motor Vehicle Outlook
      • Table MOTOR VEHICLE INDICATORS
    • Motor Vehicle Design & Technology
      • Light Vehicle Engines & Transmissions
      • Diesel Engines
      • Hybrid & Alternative Fuel Vehicles
    • Crude Oil & Refined Petroleum Products Outlook
      • Table PETROLEUM INDUSTRY INDICATORS
    • Lubricant Additives Overview
    • Historical Market Trends
      • Table LUBRICANT MARKET, 2003-2013
      • Table CHART II-1 LUBRICANT MARKET, 2003-2013
    • Pricing Trends
      • Table LUBRICANT PRICING
    • Environmental & Regulatory Issues
      • Bio-Based Lubricants
      • Recycling
      • Re-Refining
    • Motor Vehicle Lubricant Classification & Testing
    • Foreign Trade
      • Table US FINISHED LUBRICANT FOREIGN TRADE
    • International Activity
  • LUBRICANT BASESTOCKS
    • General
      • Table LUBRICANT BASESTOCK DEMAND
      • Table CHART III-1 LUBRICANT PRODUCTION FLOWCHART
    • Petroleum Base Oils
      • Table CHART III-2 PETROLEUM BASE OIL REFINING FLOWCHART
      • Petroleum Base Oil Supply & Demand
        • Table PETROLEUM BASE OIL SUPPLY & DEMAND
        • Table CHART III-3 PETROLEUM BASE OIL DEMAND BY TYPE, 2003-2023
      • Refining Capacity
        • Table US PETROLEUM BASE OIL REFINING CAPACITY BY COMPANY, 2013
        • Table CHART III-4 US PETROLEUM BASE OIL REFINING CAPACITY BY COMPANY, 2013
    • Other Basestocks
      • Table NON-PETROLEUM BASESTOCK DEMAND
      • Synthetic Base Fluids
      • Re-Refined Base Oils
      • Bio-Based Oils
  • PRODUCTS
    • General
    • Lubricants by Formulation
      • Table LUBRICANT DEMAND BY FORMULATION
      • Table CHART IV-1 LUBRICANT DEMAND BY FORMULATION, 2013
      • Conventional
        • Table CONVENTIONAL LUBRICANT DEMAND
      • Synthetic
        • Table SYNTHETIC LUBRICANT DEMAND
      • Re-Refined
        • Table RE-REFINED LUBRICANT DEMAND
      • Bio-Based
        • Table BIO-BASED LUBRICANT DEMAND
    • Lubricants by Type
      • Table LUBRICANT DEMAND BY TYPE
      • Table CHART IV-2 LUBRICANT DEMAND BY TYPE, 2013
      • Engine Oils
        • Table ENGINE OIL DEMAND
        • Table MOTOR VEHICLE ENGINE OIL DEMAND BY TYPE
        • Table LIGHT VEHICLE ENGINE OIL DEMAND BY VISCOSITY GRADE
        • Table CHART IV-3 LIGHT VEHICLE ENGINE OIL DEMAND BY VISCOSITY GRADE, 2003-2023
        • Table OTHER ENGINE OIL DEMAND
      • Process Oils
        • Table PROCESS OIL DEMAND
        • Table CHART IV-4 PROCESS OIL DEMAND BY TYPE, 2013
        • Table RUBBER OIL DEMAND
        • Table WHITE OIL DEMAND
        • Table ELECTRICAL OIL DEMAND
        • Table OTHER PROCESS OIL DEMAND
      • Transmission & Hydraulic Fluids
        • Table TRANSMISSION & HYDRAULIC FLUID DEMAND
        • Table CHART IV-5 TRANSMISSION & HYDRAULIC FLUID DEMAND BY TYPE, 2013
        • Table INDUSTRIAL HYDRAULIC FLUID DEMAND
        • Table AUTOMATIC TRANSMISSION FLUID DEMAND
        • Table TRACTOR HYDRAULIC FLUID DEMAND
        • Table OTHER TRANSMISSION & HYDRAULIC FLUID DEMAND
      • Metalworking Fluids
        • Table METALWORKING FLUID DEMAND
      • General Industrial Oils
        • Table GENERAL INDUSTRIAL OIL DEMAND
        • Table TURBINE OIL DEMAND
        • Table OTHER GENERAL INDUSTRIAL OIL DEMAND
      • Gear Oils
        • Table GEAR OIL DEMAND
      • Greases
        • Table GREASE DEMAND
  • MARKETS
    • General
      • Table LUBRICANT DEMAND BY MARKET
      • Table CHART V-1 LUBRICANT DEMAND BY MARKET, 2013
    • Light Vehicles
      • Light Vehicle Industry Outlook
        • Table LIGHT VEHICLE INDICATORS
      • Light Vehicle Lubricant Demand
        • Table LIGHT VEHICLE LUBRICANT DEMAND BY TYPE
      • Light Vehicle Engine Oil Outlets
        • Table LIGHT VEHICLE ENGINE OIL DEMAND BY OUTLET
    • Commercial & Industrial
      • Table COMMERCIAL & INDUSTRIAL LUBRICANT DEMAND
      • Table CHART V-2 COMMERCIAL & INDUSTRIAL LUBRICANT DEMAND BY MARKET, 2013
      • Agriculture
        • Table AGRICULTURAL INDICATORS
        • Table AGRICULTURAL LUBRICANT DEMAND
      • Electricity Generation
        • Table ELECTRICITY GENERATION
        • Table ELECTRICITY GENERATION LUBRICANT DEMAND
      • Construction
        • Table CONSTRUCTION EXPENDITURES
        • Table CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY LUBRICANT DEMAND
      • Oil & Gas Production
        • Table PETROLEUM & NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION
        • Table PETROLEUM & NATURAL GAS LUBRICANT DEMAND
      • Other Commercial & Industrial Markets
        • Table OTHER COMMERCIAL & INDUSTRIAL LUBRICANT DEMAND
    • Transportation Equipment
      • Table TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT LUBRICANT DEMAND
      • Table CHART V-3 TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT LUBRICANT DEMAND BY MARKET, 2013
      • Heavy-Duty Trucks & Buses
        • Table HEAVY-DUTY TRUCK & BUS INDICATORS
        • Table HEAVY-DUTY TRUCK & BUS LUBRICANT DEMAND
      • Marine Equipment
        • Table WATERBORNE COMMERCE INDICATORS
        • Table MARINE LUBRICANT DEMAND
      • Railroad Equipment
        • Table RAILROAD TRANSPORTATION INDICATORS
        • Table RAILROAD LUBRICANT DEMAND
      • Aerospace Equipment
        • Table AIRCRAFT IN SERVICE
        • Table AEROSPACE LUBRICANT DEMAND
      • Other Transportation Equipment
        • Table OTHER TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT LUBRICANT DEMAND
    • Nondurable Goods Manufacturing
      • Table NONDURABLE GOODS LUBRICANT DEMAND
      • Table CHART V-4 NONDURABLE GOODS LUBRICANT DEMAND BY MARKET, 2013
      • Plastics & Rubber
        • Table PLASTICS & RUBBER DEMAND
        • Table PLASTICS & RUBBER LUBRICANT DEMAND
      • Food & Beverages
        • Table FOOD & BEVERAGE SHIPMENTS
        • Table FOOD & BEVERAGE LUBRICANT DEMAND
      • Cosmetics & Toiletries
        • Table COSMETIC & TOILETRY SUPPLY & DEMAND
        • Table COSMETIC & TOILETRY LUBRICANT DEMAND
      • Chemicals
        • Table CHEMICAL PRODUCT SHIPMENTS
        • Table CHEMICAL INDUSTRY LUBRICANT DEMAND
      • Paper & Textiles
        • Table PAPER & TEXTILE PRODUCT SHIPMENTS
        • Table PAPER & TEXTILE LUBRICANT DEMAND
      • Other Nondurable Goods Manufacturing
        • Table OTHER NONDURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURING LUBRICANT DEMAND
    • Durable Goods Manufacturing
      • Table DURABLE GOODS LUBRICANT DEMAND
      • Table CHART V-5 DURABLE GOODS LUBRICANT DEMAND BY MARKET, 2013
      • Machinery
        • Table MACHINERY SHIPMENTS
        • Table MACHINERY PRODUCTION LUBRICANT DEMAND
      • Transportation Equipment Manufacturing
        • Table TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT SHIPMENTS
        • Table TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT OEM LUBRICANT DEMAND
      • Metals
        • Table METAL PRODUCT SHIPMENTS
        • Table METAL PRODUCTION LUBRICANT DEMAND
      • Other Durable Goods Manufacturing
        • Table OTHER DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURING LUBRICANT DEMAND
  • INDUSTRY STRUCTURE
    • General
    • Industry Composition
      • Table US LUBRICANT SALES BY COMPANY, 2013
    • Market Share
      • Table CHART VI-1 US FINISHED LUBRICANT MARKET SHARE, 2013
    • Acquisitions & Divestitures
      • Table SELECTED ACQUISITIONS & DIVESTITURES
    • Competitive Strategies
      • Low Cost Production
      • Strategic Partnerships
        • Table SELECTED COOPERATIVE AGREEMENTS
    • Marketing
      • Industrial Lubricant Marketing Strategies
      • Automotive Lubricant Marketing Strategies
    • Distribution
    • Refining & Blending
    • Company Profiles
      • AMSOIL Incorporated
      • Ashland Incorporated
      • BP plc
      • Calumet Specialty Products Partners LP
      • Chemtura Corporation
      • Chevron Corporation
      • Chevron Phillips Chemical Company LLC
      • Clean Harbors Incorporated
      • ConocoPhillips
      • Croda International plc
      • Dow Chemical Company
      • DuPont (EI) de Nemours
      • Eastman Chemical Company
      • Ergon Incorporated
      • Exxon Mobil Corporation
      • FUCHS Petrolub AG
      • Gulf Oil Corporation Limited
      • Heartland Petroleum LLC
      • Henkel AG & Company KGaA
      • Heritage-Crystal Clean Incorporated
      • HollyFrontier Corporation
      • Illinois Tool Works Incorporated
      • LyondellBasell Industries NV
      • Martin Midstream Partners LP
      • Martin Resource Management Corporation
      • Milacron LLC
      • PBF Energy Incorporated
      • Petróleos de Venezuela SA
      • Phillips 66
      • Quaker Chemical Corporation
      • Rockwood Holdings Incorporated
      • Royal Dutch Shell plc
      • San Joaquin Refining Company Incorporated
      • Sonneborn LLC
      • Suncor Energy Incorporated
      • Total SA
      • Valero Energy Corporation
      • Warren Oil Company Incorporated
    • Additional Companies Mentioned in Study

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