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World Lubricants


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Global lubricant demand to reach 41.7 million metric tons in 2010
World demand for lubricants is forecast to advance 2.3 percent per year to 41.7 million metric tons in 2010. Gains will be driven by increasing rates of motor vehicle ownership worldwide, as well as a rising number of kilometers traveled per vehicle. Additionally, growth in worldwide manufacturing activity will boost the demand for industrial lubricants such as process oils and hydraulic fluids. However, the prevailing global trend is toward reducing the amount of lubricant consumption, both for environmental reasons as well as cost-effectiveness purposes. In developed regions such as North America and Western Europe, increasing standards for lubricants will result in significantly improved quality, decreasing the volume of lubricant needed for a particular application. Lubricant quality will also improve in developing regions, as outdated motor vehicles and machinery are replaced with products that require smaller amounts of better-performing lubricants.

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Global demand to increase 1.6% per year through 2012

World lubricant demand will increase 1.6 percent per year to 40.5 million metric tons in 2012. Growth will be aided by the ongoing expansion of the world motor vehicle park, as well as by a rebound in manufacturing and other industrial activity from the global economic slowdown of 2008 and 2009. Advances will be strongest in the Asia/Pacific region due to ongoing rapid industrialization as well as rising car ownership rates. Both of these trends will also favor healthy growth in the Africa/Mideast region and Latin America. Meanwhile, the greater availability of advanced, high performance lubricants, greater global competition and increasingly stringent environmental rules will result in reduced or negative growth in lubricant demand in the more developed countries of North America and Western Europe, as well as in Eastern Europe and Japan.

China, India to lead growth in developing countries

Despite the downturn in the global motor vehicle market in late 2008 and early 2009, motor vehicle lubricant demand will continue to expand throughout the forecast period. Increases in lubricant demand will be led by strong gains in the Asia/Pacific region due to rapid expansion of the motor vehicle park in developing countries such as China and India. Healthy growth will also occur in Latin America and the Africa/Mideast region, while advances in Eastern Europe will be below average. However, a trend toward increased drain intervals, influenced in part by the growing availability of superior, high performance synthetic lubricants, will result in declining demand in Western Europe as well as below average growth in North America. While the fastest growth will be in manufacturing and other markets, it will still represent a slowdown from the 2002 to 2007 period as the global economic slowdown of 2008 and 2009 restrains upward advances in lubricant demand through 2012. The Asia/Pacific region, led by China, will continue to be the primary driver of growth in these markets due to companies worldwide pursuing the region’s key advantages of relatively low labor costs and political stability. Latin America and the Africa/Mideast region will also achieve near or above average growth, respectively, in manufacturing as significant countries in both regions continue to develop their industrial bases.

Engine oils will remain dominant, process oils to exhibit fastest growth

In terms of product types, engine oils will continue to account for the greatest share of lubricant demand going forward. This will primarily reflect the importance of transportation in an increasingly global economy, both from a consumer and commercial perspective. The fastest gains will be achieved in process oils due to the greater difficulty of boosting consumption efficiency of these lubricants relative to hydraulic and metalworking fluids, both of which will experience below average gains as companies everywhere work to reduce unit consumption in an effort to maintain competitiveness. Despite the slow growth in hydraulic and metalworking fluids, significant value opportunities will still exist for the introduction of new, higher performance oils, and/or more environmentally friendly fluids that meet the increasingly strict regulations found in developed countries. This will be reflected in the above average advances in nonconventional lubricant demand going forward, even as traditional petroleum-based lubricant demand continues to expand as well.

I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
II. MARKET ENVIRONMENT
General
World Population Outlook
World Economic Outlook
Recent Economic Performance
Macroeconomic Outlook
World Manufacturing Outlook
World Fixed Investment Overview
World Motor Vehicle Outlook
World Motor Vehicle Park
World Motor Vehicle Production
Motor Vehicle Design Technology
Gasoline Engines
Diesel Engines
World Oil Industry Outlook
World Crude Oil Production
World Refined Petroleum Products Production
Environmental & Regulatory Trends
Lubricant Standards & Testing
III. OVERVIEW
General
World Lubricant Demand by Region
World Lubricant Demand by Formulation
Petroleum Lubricants
Nonconventional Lubricants
Synthetic Lubricants
Re-Refined Lubricants
Vegetable-Based Lubricants
World Lubricant Demand by Product
Engine Oils
Process Oils
Hydraulic Fluids
Metalworking Fluids
Other Lubricants
World Lubricant Demand by Market
Motor Vehicle Aftermarket
Manufacturing
Other
World Base Oil Trends
Lubricant Production & Trade
IV. NORTH AMERICA
North America: General
North America: Markets & Products
United States
Canada
Mexico
North America: Market Share
V. WESTERN EUROPE
Western Europe: General
Western Europe: Markets & Products
Germany
France
Italy
United Kingdom
Spain
Other Western Europe
Netherlands
Belgium
All Other Western Europe
Western Europe: Market Share
VI. ASIA/PACIFIC
Asia/Pacific: General
Asia/Pacific: Markets & Products
China
Japan
India
South Korea
Indonesia
Thailand
Australia
Other Asia/Pacific
Taiwan
Malaysia
Philippines
All Other Asia/Pacific
Asia/Pacific Market Share
VII. OTHER REGIONS
Latin America
Latin America: General
Latin America: Markets & Products
Brazil
Other Latin America
Argentina
Venezuela
All Other Latin America
Latin America: Market Share
Eastern Europe
Eastern Europe: General
Eastern Europe: Markets & Products
Russia
Other Eastern Europe
Poland
Ukraine
All Other Eastern Europe
Eastern Europe: Market Share
Africa/Mideast
Africa/Mideast: General
Africa/Mideast: Markets & Products
Iran
Other Africa/Mideast
Turkey
Egypt
Saudi Arabia
South Africa
All Other Africa/Mideast
Africa/Mideast: Market Share
VIII. INDUSTRY STRUCTURE
General
Industry Composition
Lubricant Market Share
Competitive Strategies
Merger & Acquisition Activity
Strategic Partnerships
Refining & Blending
Marketing & Distribution
Company Profiles
AB Nynas Petroleum, see Petroleos de Venezuela
Alhamrani-Fuchs Petroleum Saudi Arabia,
see FUCHS Petrolub
American Agip Company, see Eni
Anderol Specialty Lubricants, see Chemtura Corporation
Anji Jiffy Lube Automotive Services Company,
see Royal Dutch Shell
Ashland Incorporated
BP plc
Burmah Castrol, see BP
Chemtura Corporation
Chevron Corporation
China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation
CITGO Petroleum, see Petroleos de Venezuela
ConocoPhillips
Emarat, see Emirates General Petroleum
Emirates General Petroleum Corporation
Engen Petroleum Limited
Eni SpA
Excel Paralubes, see ConocoPhillips
Exxon Mobil Corporation
FUCHS Petrolub AG
GS Caltex, see Chevron
Hatco, see Chemtura
Idemitsu Kosan Company Limited
Imperial Oil, see Exxon Mobil
Indian Oil Corporation Limited
Lukoil Oil Company
Motiva Enterprises, see Royal Dutch Shell
Nippon Oil Corporation
Pertamina, see Perusahaan Pertambangan Minyak
Dan Gas Bumi Negara
Perusahaan Pertambangan Minyak Dan Gas Bumi Negara
Petro-Canada Limited
PetroChina Company Limited
Petroleo Brasileiro SA
Petroleos Mexicanos SA
Petroleos de Venezuela SA
Petroliam Nasional Berhad
Petrol Ofisi AS
Petromin Oils, see Saudi Arabian Lubricating Oil
Repsol YPF SA
Royal Dutch Shell plc
Ruhr Oel, see BP and Petroleos de Venezuela
Saudi Arabian Lubricating Oil Company
Selenia (FL), see Petroliam Nasional Berhad
Shell Oil Products US, see Royal Dutch Shell
Sinopec Lubricant Company,
see China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation
SK Energy Company Limited
Total SA
Ukrtatnafta AB
Valvoline, see Ashland
Yushiro Chemical Industry Company Limited
Other Companies Mentioned in the Study
LIST OF TABLES
TABLE NUMBER PAGE
SECTION I -- EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Summary Table
SECTION II -- MARKET ENVIRONMENT
1 World Population by Region
2 World Gross Domestic Product by Region
3 World Manufacturing Value Added by Region
4 World Gross Fixed Investment by Region
5 World Motor Vehicle Park by Region
6 World Motor Vehicle Production by Region
7 World Crude Oil Production by Region
8 World Refined Petroleum Products Production by Region
SECTION III -- OVERVIEW
1 World Lubricant Demand by Region
2 World Lubricant Demand by Formulation
3 World Petroleum Lubricant Demand by Region
4 World Nonconventional Lubricant Demand by Region
5 World Lubricant Demand by Product
6 World Engine Oil Demand by Region
7 World Process Oil Demand by Region
8 World Hydraulic Fluid Demand by Region
9 World Metalworking Fluid Demand by Region
10 World Other Lubricants Demand by Region
11 World Lubricant Demand by Market
12 World Motor Vehicle Aftermarket Lubricant Demand
13 World Manufacturing Demand
14 World Other Lubricant Markets Demand
15 World Lubricant Base Oil Demand
SECTION IV -- NORTH AMERICA
1 North America -- Economic & Market Environment
2 North America -- Lubricant Demand
3 United States -- Economic & Market Environment
4 United States -- Lubricant Demand by Market
5 United States -- Lubricant Demand by Product & Formulation
6 Canada -- Economic & Market Environment
7 Canada -- Lubricant Demand by Market
8 Canada -- Lubricant Demand by Product & Formulation
9 Mexico -- Economic & Market Environment
10 Mexico -- Lubricant Demand by Market
11 Mexico -- Lubricant Demand by Product & Formulation
SECTION V -- WESTERN EUROPE
1 Western Europe -- Economic & Market Environment
2 Western Europe -- Lubricant Demand
3 Germany -- Economic & Market Environment
4 Germany -- Lubricant Demand by Market
5 Germany -- Lubricant Demand by Product & Formulation
6 France -- Economic & Market Environment
7 France -- Lubricant Demand by Market
8 France -- Lubricant Demand by Product & Formulation
9 Italy -- Economic & Market Environment
10 Italy -- Lubricant Demand by Market
11 Italy -- Lubricant Demand by Product & Formulation
12 United Kingdom -- Economic & Market Environment
13 United Kingdom -- Lubricant Demand by Market
14 United Kingdom -- Lubricant Demand
by Product & Formulation
15 Spain -- Economic & Market Environment
16 Spain -- Lubricant Demand by Market
17 Spain -- Lubricant Demand by Product & Formulation
18 Other Western Europe -- Economic & Market Environment
19 Other Western Europe -- Lubricant Demand
20 Other Western Europe -- Lubricant Demand
SECTION VI -- ASIA/PACIFIC
1 Asia/Pacific -- Economic & Market Environment
2 Asia/Pacific -- Lubricant Demand
3 China -- Economic & Market Environment
4 China -- Lubricant Demand by Market
5 China -- Lubricant Demand by Product & Formulation
6 Japan -- Economic & Market Environment
7 Japan -- Lubricant Demand by Market
8 Japan -- Lubricant Demand by Product & Formulation
9 India -- Economic & Market Environment
10 India -- Lubricant Demand by Market
11 India -- Lubricant Demand by Product & Formulation
12 South Korea -- Economic & Market Environment
13 South Korea -- Lubricant Demand by Market
14 South Korea -- Lubricant Demand by Product & Formulation
15 Indonesia -- Economic & Market Environment
16 Indonesia -- Lubricant Demand by Market
17 Indonesia -- Lubricant Demand by Product & Formulation
18 Thailand -- Economic & Market Environment
19 Thailand -- Lubricant Demand by Market
20 Thailand -- Lubricant Demand by Product & Formulation
21 Australia -- Economic & Market Environment
22 Australia -- Lubricant Demand by Market
23 Australia -- Lubricant Demand by Product & Formulation
24 Other Asia/Pacific -- Economic & Market Environment
25 Other Asia/Pacific -- Lubricant Demand
26 Other Asia/Pacific -- Lubricant Demand
SECTION VII -- OTHER REGIONS
1 Latin America -- Economic & Market Environment
2 Latin America -- Lubricant Demand
3 Brazil -- Economic & Market Environment
4 Brazil -- Lubricant Demand by Market
5 Brazil -- Lubricant Demand by Product & Formulation
6 Other Latin America -- Economic & Market Environment
7 Other Latin America -- Lubricant Demand
8 Other Latin America -- Lubricant Demand
9 Eastern Europe -- Economic & Market Environment
10 Eastern Europe -- Lubricant Demand
11 Russia -- Economic & Market Environment
12 Russia -- Lubricant Demand by Market
13 Russia -- Lubricant Demand by Product & Formulation
14 Other Eastern Europe -- Economic & Market Environment
15 Other Eastern Europe -- Lubricant Demand
16 Other Eastern Europe -- Lubricant Demand
17 Africa/Mideast -- Economic & Market Environment
18 Africa/Mideast -- Lubricant Demand
19 Iran -- Economic & Market Environment
20 Iran -- Lubricant Demand by Market
21 Iran -- Lubricant Demand by Product & Formulation
22 Other Africa/Mideast -- Economic & Market Environment
23 Other Africa/Mideast -- Lubricant Demand
24 Other Africa/Mideast -- Lubricant Demand
SECTION VIII -- INDUSTRY STRUCTURE
1 Selected Acquisitions & Divestitures
2 Selected Cooperative Agreements
SECTION III -- OVERVIEW
1 World Lubricant Demand by Region, 1997 - 2017
2 Lubricant Demand per Capita Vs. GDP per Capita,
3 World Lubricant Demand by Product, 2007
4 World Lubricant Demand by Market, 2007
5 World Base Oil Demand, 1997-2017
SECTION IV -- NORTH AMERICA
1 North America Market Share, 2007
SECTION V -- WESTERN EUROPE
1 Western Europe Market Share, 2007
SECTION VI -- ASIA/PACIFIC
1 Asia/Pacific Market Share, 2007
SECTION VII -- OTHER REGIONS
1 Latin America Market Share, 2007
2 Eastern Europe Market Share, 2007
3 Africa/Mideast Market Share, 2007
SECTION VIII -- INDUSTRY STRUCTURE
1 World Lubricant Market Share, 2007

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