US demand to decline due to ban on incandescents
US demand for lamps is projected to decline about four percent annually in unit terms through 2017 as the market adjusts to efficiency regulations, parti-cularly the provisions of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, which effectively bans the sale of many general service incandescent lamps. Since many of the more efficient lamps are priced at a premium, the market will decline only slightly in value terms to $7.2 billion in 2017.
LEDs to pose increasing threat to lamp demand
Light emitting diodes (LEDs) will pose an increasingly serious threat to lamp demand in a number of applications. Traditionally, their high price has limited usage in traditional lighting applications; however, technological innovations that reduce costs and improve performance will result in LEDs continuing to replace lamps in many different lighting markets, leading to the widespread adoption of LED-based lighting devices as an alternative to lamps.
CFLs, halogen lamps to replace incandescents
Compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs) and halogen lamps are expected to replace most incandescents. Since both CFLs and halogen lamps have much longer lives than incandescent lamps, the average replacement rate for lamps will decrease over time, depressing unit demand. However, because both CFLs and halogen lamps are more expensive than the incandescent lamps they replace, the value of the lamp market will decline more slowly than the rate of decline in lamp volume demand through 2017.
Halogen lamps to see fastest gains in demand
Halogen lamps are expected to see the strongest demand increases through 2017. These lamps are the most similar to traditional incandescents and will benefit from consumer familiarity, low initial cost and good light quality. In addition, an increase in motor vehicle production will spur halogen headlight demand. However, halogen lamps are less efficient and shorter-lived than LEDs and will face strong competition from these products over the longer term, particularly as consumers become more familiar with LEDs in other settings.
Maturing fluorescent lamp segment to decelerate
Demand for fluorescent lamps is projected to increase at a slower pace than seen during the 2007-2012 period, when CFLs made inroads in the residential market and less efficient linear fluorescent lamps were being replaced in many nonresidential settings. While the efficient fluorescent lamps will continue to benefit from rising regulatory standards and the replacement of incandescent and less efficient fluorescent lamps, the market for these products is maturing and, over the longer term, will decline due to competition from LEDs.
Discharge lamps to benefit from outdoor lighting use
Through 2017, demand for high intensity discharge and other discharge lamps is forecast to rise 2.3 percent per year to $2.4 billion. These products will benefit from relatively robust growth in the outdoor lighting market and rising market penetration in the motor vehicle market. However, preventing even faster growth will be the expected moderation in prices for many types of electric discharge lamps and rising competition from LEDs in the outdoor and motor vehicle markets.
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