World Infection Prevention Products
The study presents historical data (2002, 2007, and 2012) and forecasts for 2017 and 2022 in millions of US dollars for infection prevention product demand by type, geographical region, and selected countries. The term demand refers to apparent consumption and is defined as shipments (also referred to variously as “production,” “output,” or “supply”) plus imports minus exports. It is used interchangeably with the terms “market,” “sales,” and “consumption.” Global, regional, and selected national statistics are also provided for key market indicators, including gross domestic product, population and age distribution, health expenditures, hospital beds, physicians, dentists, hospital admissions, surgical procedures, outpatient episodes, dental visits, pharmaceutical shipments, medical supply and device shipments, medical and life science research expenditures, and incidences of various health careassociated infections.
Throughout the study, various references are made to indicators, demand patterns, and other variables in the “developed” and “developing” countries. The “developed” countries include Australia, Canada, Hong Kong, Israel, Japan, New Zealand, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, the United Arab Emirates, the United States, and the West European countries and territories. All remaining countries and territories are classified as “developing."
Macroeconomic and demographic indicators presented in this study were obtained from The Freedonia Group Consensus Forecasts dated January 2013. Gross domestic product (GDP) historical data are derived from the national income and products accounts from the Organisation for Economic Co- Operation and Development (OECD) for its member countries, from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) for its member countries, and from the International Monetary Fund for its member countries that are not part of the OECD or EBRD. Sources of GDP estimates for other countries are based on information from the World Bank and a variety of sources including the countries’ statistical bureaus. GDP forecasts are developed from a consensus of public agencies and private firms.
All estimates of gross domestic product and components of GDP are done in terms of constant purchasing power parity in a benchmark year (2011) that is one year before the base year (2012) used in this study. Purchasing power parity GDP estimates for the benchmark year are obtained from the OECD; Eurostat; the World Bank; the International Monetary Fund; the US Central Intelligence Agency; and selected other sources. These purchasing power parity GDP estimates for the benchmark year are based on gross domestic product data expressed in the individual countries’ local currency, which are then converted to US dollars by valuing each country’s output at US prices in the benchmark year. This approach values the same physical output at a consistent price for all countries, thereby reducing the distorting influence of different price levels in the different countries. The alternative approach of using exchange rates to convert local currency GDP to US dollars would tend to overvalue the output of countries with high average price levels and undervalue the output of countries with low average price levels, because exchange rate conversions only partially reflect the relative prices for goods and services that are domestically consumed and invested. Furthermore, factors other than relative prices, such as demand and supply in currency markets, interest rates, and capital flows, affect exchange rates.
Once the GDP values for a country are estimated for the benchmark year, we then calculate inflation-adjusted GDP for all other years for that country based on historical and forecast growth rates of GDP expressed in inflationadjusted units of that country’s local currency. This approach ensures that the GDP series for any given country is an accurate index of changes in inflationadjusted GDP for that country. However, it also implicitly assumes that the price structures across countries do not change from those of the benchmark year. Therefore, caution should be used in comparing the relative GDP of countries in years other than the benchmark year. If the ratio of prices across two countries in a given year differs from the ratio of prices across those countries in the benchmark year, then the change in the relative sizes of those two economies as measured will not accurately reflect changes in output.
The benchmark year is chosen to be one year prior to the base year for the study for reasons of data availability. One benefit of that choice is that the ratio of prices across countries in the base year is usually similar to that in the benchmark year. Therefore, the ratio of real GDP between two countries in the base year of 2012 is generally a reasonably accurate representation of the relative sizes of their economies.
Corporate information and data appearing in Section VIII, “Industry Structure,” are based on estimates derived from published company reports and personal interviews with competitors, industry experts, and sources within the companies themselves. World demand for infection prevention products was derived from a variety of primary and secondary sources including government and trade associations, industry participants, online databases, and other Freedonia studies. Primary information was obtained through consultations with officers and marketing/technical personnel of participating companies and other industry specialists.
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