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Gears

US demand to increase 4% annually through 2013
US demand for gears and gear assemblies is forecast to increase 4.0 percent per year to $30.1 billion in 2013. This will be a considerable improvement from the less than one percent yearly growth registered during the 2003-2008 period. Gains will be supported primarily by rebounding motor vehicle production, which is forecast to advance 3.4 percent per year through 2013, a notable turnaround from the declines registered over the previous decade. Gear manufacturers will also benefit from value gains derived from product improvements and upgrades, such as transmissions with higher numbers of speeds. Greater sales opportunities will also present themselves in the relatively small but rapidly expanding wind turbine market, in which large, high-value gearboxes are required. Output in the aerospace equipment and machinery industries is expected to moderate through 2013, which will slow gear demand in those markets.

Dominant motor vehicle market to see fastest gains
The US market for gears and gear assemblies is heavily reliant on the motor vehicle industry. In 2008, over threequarters of all gear sales were motor vehicle related, despite low levels of vehicle production. Motor vehicle transmissions alone accounted for nearly half of the entire gear market in that year. As a result, US gear sales patterns tend to be closely related to the performance of the motor vehicle industry. Despite strong growth in the aerospace equipment and machinery markets, gear demand increases were sluggish during the 2003- 2008 period, as the automotive industry struggled. Through 2013, advances in gear sales will be strong as the auto market recovers, despite slowing growth in the aerospace and machinery industries.

The motor vehicle market for gears and gear assemblies is forecast to register the fastest gains of any market through 2013, advancing 4.7 percent per year to $23.8 billion. Gains will be supported by an expected rebound in production of all vehicle types, although output of light trucks and vans will be slower to recover as consumers continue to opt for smaller vehicles. Trends within the automotive industry will also support higher sales of higher-value gear products, as transmissions will generally feature more speeds, power accessories will require more gearmotors, and more cars will feature four-wheel-drive systems that require the use of differentials. Transfer case sales will also be boosted by the strong growth of medium and heavy vehicle production. However, several emerging trends in the motor vehicle industry will limit gear demand increases. Continuously variable transmissions, which do not require gears, are rapidly gaining a foothold in the automobile segment of the industry. Furthermore, steer-by-wire technology could eventually limit the use of gears in steering assemblies.

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Vehicular gear assemblies to be fastest growing segment
Vehicular gear assemblies will post the strongest growth of any product category, with sales increasing 4.4 percent per year through 2013. Advances in this category will be spurred by the recovery in motor vehicle production. Increases in both the non-vehicular gear assembly and individual gear product categories will moderate from the pace registered during the 2003-2008 period. Within the individual gear category, helical and bevel gears will post the strongest gains. Helical gears will continue to displace spur gears in a number of applications, while bevel gear manufacturers will continue to take advantage of high-value sales opportunities in the aerospace market.

INTRODUCTION
I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
II. MARKET ENVIRONMENT
General
Macroeconomic Environment
Manufacturing Outlook
Nonresidential Fixed Investment Outlook
Historical Market Trends
Pricing Trends
Technological Innovations
World Gear Market
US Foreign Trade
US Imports
US Exports
III. MATERIALS
General
Metals
Ferrous Metals
Nonferrous Metals
Plastic
IV. PRODUCTS
General
Vehicular Gear Assemblies
Powertrain Gear Assemblies
Steering Gear Assemblies
Other Gear Assemblies
Speed Reducers & Changers
Helical
Bevel
Spur
Other
Gearmotors & Other Assemblies
Helical
Bevel
Spur
Worm & Other
Individual Gears
Helical
Bevel
Spur
Other
V. MARKETS
General
Demand by Market
Demand by Source
Motor Vehicles
Industry Outlook
Gear Demand by Application & Vehicle Type
Transmissions
Driveline Components
Steering Equipment
Accessories & Other Gear Applications
Gear Demand by Source
OEM
Aftermarket
Aerospace Equipment
Industry Outlook
Gear Demand
Machinery
Industry Outlook
Gear Demand by Machinery Type
Agricultural Equipment
Construction Equipment
Industrial Trucks & Tractors
Process Manufacturing Machinery
Material Handling Equipment
Mining Equipment
Other Machinery
Demand by Source
Marine Equipment
Industry Outlook
Gear Demand
Other Markets
VI. INDUSTRY STRUCTURE
General
Industry Composition
Market Share
General Motors
Ford
Eaton
Chrysler
Honda
American Axle & Manufacturing
Allison Transmission
Aisin Seiki
Other Suppliers
Financial Issues
Product Development & Manufacturing
Marketing & Distribution
Cooperative Agreements
Mergers & Acquisitions
Company Profiles
Aisin Seiki Company Limited
Allison Transmission Incorporated
Altra Industrial Motion Incorporated
American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings Incorporated
ArvinMeritor Incorporated
Baldor Electric Company
BorgWarner Incorporated
Bosch (Robert) GmbH
Boston Gear, see Altra Industrial Motion
Browning, see Emerson Electric
Caterpillar Incorporated
Chrysler Group LLC
Clyde Blowers Limited
Daimler AG
Dana Holding Corporation
David Brown Gear Systems, see Clyde Blowers
Deere & Company
Delphi Corporation
Detroit Diesel, see Daimler
Durst, see Regal-Beloit
Eaton Corporation
Emerson Electric Company
Ford Motor Company
General Motors Company
Grove Gear/Electra-Gear, see Regal-Beloit
Honda Motor Company Limited
Horsburgh & Scott Company
Hub City/Foote Jones, see Regal-Beloit
Huco Engineering Industries, see Altra Industrial Motion
Joy Global Incorporated
Leeson Electric, see Regal-Beloit
Linamar Corporation
Magna International Incorporated
Morse Industrial, see Emerson Electric
Nexteer Automotive, see General Motors
Northrop Grumman Corporation
Nuttall Gear, see Altra Industrial Motion
OC Oerlikon Management AG
Regal-Beloit Corporation
Rexnord LLC
Richmond Gear/Velvet Drive, see Regal-Beloit
Sypris Solutions Incorporated
Textron Incorporated
Toyota Motor Corporation
TRW Automotive Holdings Corporation
Visteon Corporation
WM Berg, see Rexnord
Xtek Incorporated
ZF Friedrichshafen AG
Additional Companies
LIST OF TABLES
SECTION I -- EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Summary Table
SECTION II -- MARKET ENVIRONMENT
1 Macroeconomic Indicators
2 Manufacturers’ Shipments
3 Nonresidential Fixed Investment
4 Gear Market, 1998-2008
5 Gear Price Deflators
6 World Gear Demand by Region
7 US Foreign Trade in Gears
8 US Gear Imports by Source
9 US Gear Exports by Destination
SECTION III -- MATERIALS
1 Gear Demand by Material
2 Ferrous Metal Gear Demand by Product
3 Nonferrous Metal Gear Demand by Product
4 Plastic Gear Demand by Product
SECTION IV -- PRODUCTS
1 Gear Supply & Demand
2 Vehicular Gear Assembly Supply & Demand
3 Powertrain Gear Assembly Demand
4 Steering Gear Assembly Demand
5 Other Gear Assembly Supply & Demand
6 Speed Reducer/Changer Demand
7 Gearmotor & Other Assembly Demand
8 Individual Gear Supply & Demand
9 Individual Helical Gear Demand
10 Individual Bevel Gear Demand
11 Individual Spur Gear Demand
12 Other Individual Gear Demand
SECTION V -- MARKETS
1 Gear Demand by Market & Source
2 Motor Vehicle Industry Outlook
3 Motor Vehicle Gear Demand by Application & Vehicle Type
4 Motor Vehicle Transmission Gear Demand
5 Motor Vehicle Driveline Gear Demand
6 Motor Vehicle Steering Gear Demand
7 Motor Vehicle Accessory & Other Gear Demand
8 Motor Vehicle Gear Demand by Source
9 Motor Vehicle OEM Gear Demand by Supplier & Vehicle Type
10 Motor Vehicle Aftermarket Gear Demand by Vehicle Type
11 Aerospace Equipment Shipments
12 Aerospace Gear Demand
13 Machinery Shipments by Type
14 Gear Demand by Machinery Type
15 Agricultural Equipment Gear Demand
16 Construction Equipment Gear Demand
17 Industrial Truck & Tractor Gear Demand
18 Process Manufacturing Machinery Gear Demand
19 Material Handling Equipment Gear Demand
20 Mining Equipment Gear Demand
21 Other Machinery Gear Demand
22 Machinery Gear Demand by Source
23 Marine Equipment Shipments
24 Marine Gear Demand
25 Other Markets Gear Demand
SECTION VI -- INDUSTRY STRUCTURE
1 Gear Sales by Company, 2008
2 Composite Financial Ratios: Selected Gear Manufacturers
3 Selected Cooperative Agreements
4 Selected Acquisitions & Divestitures
LIST OF CHARTS
SECTION II -- MARKET ENVIRONMENT
1 Gear Market, 1999-2008
2 Gear Pricing, 1998-2018
3 World Gear Demand, 2008
4 US Gear Imports by Source, 2008
5 US Gear Exports by Destination, 2008
SECTION III -- MATERIALS
1 Gear Demand by Material, 2008
SECTION IV -- PRODUCTS
1 Gear Shipments by Product Type, 1998-2018
2 Individual Gear Demand by Product, 2008
SECTION V -- MARKETS
1 Gear Demand by Market, 2008
2 Gear Demand by Source, 2008
3 Motor Vehicle Gear Demand by Application, 2008
SECTION VI -- INDUSTRY STRUCTURE
1 US Gear Market Share by Company, 2008

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