Sales to increase more than 7% annually through 2017
Global diesel engine sales are forecast to grow more than seven percent per annum through 2017 to $250 million. This will represent a marked acceleration from the 2007-2012 pace, as the rising popularity of diesel cars in many nations, particularly India and the US, will combine with higher medium and heavy truck and bus and off-highway machinery production output to generate greater engine demand.
North America, Western Europe markets to rebound
Demand for diesel engines will rebound through 2017 in Western Europe, the second largest regional market, supported by a recovery in the area’s economy following the debt-related recessions experienced in many nations in 2012. Diesel light vehicles produced in this region, particularly in Germany, are considered to be the gold standard for passenger cars powered by compressionignition engines worldwide, and rising income levels and demand for highquality imported vehicles in several large developing countries will boost production of these units.
North America will also see a pickup in diesel engine sales through 2017. The growing popularity of these cars in the US and an upturn in vehicle sales in Western Europe will spur advances in vehicle manufacturing in this area. Value gains in this region will be concentrated in the large medium and heavy vehicle and off-highway segments, supported by improved economic conditions and increased investment in construction and mining projects around the world.
Asia/Pacific region will remain dominant end user
In 2012, the Asia/Pacific region was the largest user of diesel engines by a wide margin, due primarily to the presence of the massive Chinese, Indian, and Japanese markets, which represent three of the five largest national buyers of diesel engines on a global scale. China and India will also be among the fastest rising national markets through 2017, spurred by rapidly climbing production of dieselpowered motor vehicles and off-highway machinery. However, regional sales gains will be restrained to some degree by a sharp deceleration in the Japanese market, reflecting a drop in truck and other motor vehicle output as locally based automakers continue to boost manufacturing capacity overseas.
Light vehicle diesel engine demand to outpace trucks & buses
Worldwide diesel engine demand will continue to be dominated by motor vehicles, particularly medium and heavy trucks and buses. These units benefit significantly from the high power output and greater fuel economy of compression- ignition engines relative to the only other viable alternative, spark-ignition engines. However, this segment will record slower market growth than light vehicles through 2017 in percentage terms, due primarily to an already high diesel penetration rate, which leaves little room for expansion. Sales of light vehicle diesel engines will advance at a faster pace due to an expected increase in the diesel penetration rate in India and the US, as well as higher overall light vehicle output in Western Europe and Thailand, areas where diesel automobiles and light trucks are already popular. Market gains will be even stronger in percentage terms for off-highway applications. As global economic growth accelerates, off-highway machinery operators will feel more confident in their revenue streams and replace the older equipment in their fleets, fueling sales and production of agricultural, construction, and mining machinery.