World demand to grow 7.0% per annum through 2018
Global demand for agricultural equipment is forecast to expand 7.0 percent per annum to $216 billion in 2018, accelerating from the pace of the 2008-2013 period. Advances will be propelled by the increasing mechanization of farming operations in developing countries, with particularly sizable gains anticipated in China, India, and Brazil. Ongoing economic expansion, population growth, and rising per capita calorie intake in these and other developing nations will boost demand for food. This will not only place greater pressure on their agricultural sectors to become more efficient and productive, but it will also increase farm incomes, thus creating additional opportunities for machinery sales. In more developed markets such as the United States and Western Europe, growth in agricultural equipment demand will be driven by efforts to reduce inputs and maximize production capabilities through the use of increasingly advanced highvalue precision farming technologies such as global positioning systems and yield monitors.
China alone to account for one-third of gains
The Asia/Pacific region, which accounted for 46 percent of agricultural equipment demand worldwide in 2013, represents the largest and fastest growing regional market. China alone will account for over one-third of global sales value gains between 2013 and 2018. India -- the world’s third largest market for farm equipment behind China and the United States -- will also record sizable dollar increases. Demand for harvesting machinery, which can provide significant gains in terms of efficiency, is projected to expand strongly in the region. This equipment is becoming more affordable in many large, rapidly developing agricultural markets due to rising farm incomes and greater access to capital. However, overall demand for new equipment in developing markets will continue to be constrained by competition from used machinery.
Replacement demand to drive developed markets
The outlook for more developed markets that are already highly intensive users of agricultural equipment is largely driven by replacement demand. Replacement schedules are influenced by a range of factors, including overall economic conditions and the ongoing development of increasingly sophisticated technologies capable of substantially reducing costs and improving yields. For instance, many farmers in North America and Western Europe delayed replacing their older machinery during the 2008-2010 period, opting to forgo major purchases of new machinery in times of economic uncertainty. In 2011 and 2012, on the other hand, improving economic conditions enticed farmers to finally replace older machines. While this served to constrain agricultural equipment demand in 2013, it bodes well for sales over the next 5 to 10 years, as such machinery typically requires replacement within 8 or 9 years of purchase. The continued advancement of agricultural technologies will further boost replacement demand, as the enhanced efficiency these innovations can provide will make it economically feasible for farmers to replace their equipment more frequently.