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Analytical Report on Soybean Import in China, 2018-2022

Analytical Report on Soybean Import in China, 2018-2022

Description

As the largest soybean consumer in the world, China consumed about 110 million tons of soybeans in 2017, about one-third of the world's total soybean consumption. In China, soybeans are mainly used for the extraction of edible oils and the making of bean products. Soybean meal, the by-product of oil extraction, is a high-quality feed that is widely used in China's livestock breeding industry. China's soybean consumption is rising. However, soybean planting is a low-profit and even money-losing industry in China in the context of low-level agricultural technologies and rising labor costs, which makes it difficult to significantly increase domestic soybean yields. For example, from 2012 to 2017, China's soybean consumption surged from 74.85 million tons to 112.18 million tons while its soybean yields just increased from 13.01 million tons to 14.55 million tons. In 2015, the soybean yields even fell to 11.78 million tons.

The wide gap between the yields and consumption forces Chinese companies to satisfy the market demand by importing soybeans. From 2013 to 2017, the import volume of soybeans in China inched up from 58.38 million tons to 95.53 million tons. In 2017, the soybeans imported from Brazil and the U.S. reached 50.93 million tons and 32.85 million tons respectively, accounting for 53.3% and 34.4% respectively of the total soybean imports.

The more important reason for China’s largely importing soybeans is that foreign soybeans have higher yields and oil yields. Thanks to transgenic species, large-scale planting and modernized agricultural technologies, the major soybean producing countries in South and North America outperform China in both planting cost control and per unit area yield, and thus have distinct price advantages. This is also the core reason why imported soybeans occupy a major share of the Chinese market. In addition, higher oil yields of imported soybeans are also an advantage over domestic ones. The oil yields of domestic soybeans range from 16% to 17%, while those of imported transgenic ones range from 19% to 20%, which are 3% higher. This difference directly affects the profits on soybean crushing. On the whole, domestic soybeans cannot compete with imported ones either in prices or in oil yields.

China's soybean industry is heavily reliant on imports and is thus vulnerable to the impact of international soybean prices. China has weak pricing power on the soybean market. To encourage soybean planting, the Chinese government has introduced some incentives, for example, government subsidies. However, the incentives including low subsidies are not effective enough to dramatically increase domestic soybean yields.

In Jul. 2018, the Chinese government began to impose a 25% retaliatory tariff on U.S. goods including soybeans, which made the cost of importing U.S. soybeans about 40 USD/ton to 50 USD/ton higher than that of importing Brazilian soybeans. In this context, some Chinese importers are considering turning to Brazil. Although Brazil is the world's largest soybean exporter, Brazilian soybeans are unlikely to completely replace the soybean imports from the U.S. It is mainly because that the soybean imports from other countries like Argentina, Paraguay and Canada total less than 15 million tons every year, and have limited growth potential.

It is expected that with an expanding population and improving living standards, the demand for soybeans in China will continue to grow in the next few years. As the domestic soybean yields can hardly be increased, over 80% soybean consumption will rely on imports.

There are many uncertainties in the Sino-U.S. trade war. If China and the U.S. can reach a compromise on bilateral trade, in 2019, U.S. soybean imports to China may rebound rapidly; otherwise, the tariffs will remain at the current level or be increased, and there will be a surge in the prices and a plummet in the volume of U.S. soybeans imported to China. Even if Chinese importers turn their attention to countries such as Brazil, the soaring demand will push up the prices of soybeans from these countries and press Chinese importers in cost. Overall, the ongoing Sino-U.S. trade war will increase the cost of importing soybeans, which means that Chinese consumers will have to pay more for soybean oil, bean products, dairy products, pork, eggs, etc.

Topics Covered:

  • Demand for soybeans in China
  • Status of soybean planting in China
  • Soybean import in China
  • Major Chinese importers of soybeans
  • Major sources of soybean imports to China
  • Impact of Sino-U.S. trade war on China's import of soybeans
  • Forecasts on soybean import in China from 2019 to 2023


1 Analysis on Environment of China's Soybean Import
1.1 Analysis on Economic Environment of China's Soybean Industry
1.1.1 Analysis on China's Soybean Industry Chain
1.1.2 Analysis on Supply of Soybeans in China
1.1.3 Analysis on Demand for Soybeans in China
1.2 Analysis on Policy Environment of China's Soybean Industry
1.2.1 Analysis on Import Policies on China's Soybean Industry
1.2.2 Analysis on Subsidies to China's Soybean Industry
1.3 Analysis on Social Environment of China's Soybean Industry
1.4 Analysis on Technological Environment of China's Soybean Industry
2 Analysis on Soybean Import in China
2.1 Analysis on Scale of Soybean Import in China
2.1.1 Analysis on Import Volume of Soybeans in China
2.1.2 Analysis on Import Value of Soybeans in China
2.2 Analysis on Prices of Imported Soybeans in China
2.3 Analysis on Drivers of Soybeans Import in China
2.4 Analysis on Competitive Advantages of Imported Soybeans
2.5 Analysis on Major Factors Affecting Soybean Import in China
2.5.1 Favorable Factors
2.5.2 Unfavorable Factors
2.6 Forecasts on Soybean Import in China, 2019-2023
2.6.1 Forecast on Import Volume of Soybeans in China, 2019-2023
2.6.2 Forecast on Major Sources of Soybean Import in China, 2019-2023
3 Analysis on Global Soybean Industry
3.1 Analysis on Global Supply of Soybeans
3.2 Analysis on Global Demand for Soybeans
3.3 Analysis on Global Trade of Soybeans
4. Analysis on Major Sources of Soybean Imports to China
4.1 Analysis on U.S. Soybean Industry
4.1.1 Analysis on Supply of Soybeans in the U.S.
4.1.2 Analysis on Demand for Soybeans in the U.S.
4.1.3 Analysis on Soybean Export in the U.S.
4.1.4 Analysis on Prices of U.S. Soybeans Exported to China
4.1.5 Analysis on Costs of Soybean Production in China and the U.S. Separately
4.2 Analysis on Brazil's Soybean Industry
4.2.1 Analysis on Supply of Soybeans in Brazil
4.2.2 Analysis on Demand for Soybeans in Brazil
4.2.3 Analysis on Soybean Export in Brazil
4.2.4 Analysis on Prices of Brazilian Soybeans Exported to China
4.3 Analysis on Argentina's Soybean Industry
4.3.1 Analysis on Supply of Soybeans in Argentina
4.3.2 Analysis on Demand for Soybeans in Argentina
4.3.3 Analysis on Soybean Exports in Argentina
4.3.4 Analysis on Prices of Argentine Soybeans Exported to China
5 Analysis on Major Chinese Importers of Soybeans
5.1 COFCO Corporation
5.2 Jiusan Oils & Grains Industries Group Co., Ltd.
5.3 China Grain Reserves Corporation
5.4 Shandong Bohi Industry Co., Ltd.
5.5 Sanhe Hopefull Grain & Oil Group Co., Ltd.
5.6 Shandong Sanwei Oil & Fat Group Co. Ltd.
5.7 Chinatex Corporation
5.8 Yihai Kerry
6 Analysis on Major U.S. Soybean Exporters to China
6.1 Cargill
6.2 Bunge
6.3 ADM
6.4 Louis Dreyfus
7 Impact of Sino-U.S. Trade War on China's Import of U.S. Soybeans
7.1 Short-term Impact
7.2 Medium-term Impact
7.3 Long-term Impact
Selected Charts
Chart China's GDP and Disposable Income Per Capita, 2013-2017
Chart Soybean Planted Area in China, 2009-2017
Chart Soybean Yields in China, 2009-2017
Chart Soybean Consumption in China, 2012-2017
Chart Market Size of China's Soybean Industry, 2014-2017
Chart Major Laws and Regulations on Soybean Planting in China
Chart Export Volume of Soybeans in China, 2012-2017
Chart Import Volume of Soybeans in China, 2013-2017
Chart Monthly Import Volume of Soybeans in China, 2013-2018
Chart Import Value of Soybeans in China, 2013-2017
Chart Monthly Import Value of Soybeans in China, 2013-2018
Chart Monthly Unit Prices of Soybean Imports in China, 2013-2018
Chart Prices of Soybean Imports in China, 2013-2018
Chart Proportion of Soybean Crushing Volume in Soybean Consumption in China, 2013-2017
Chart Soymeal Consumption Volume in China, 2013-2017
Chart Price Difference of Domestic and Imported Soybeans, 2013-2017
Chart Forecast on Import Volume of Soybeans in China, 2019-2023
Chart Soybean Yields in Major Soybean Producing Countries, 2011-2017
Chart Export Volume of Soybeans in Major Soybean Exporting Countries in 2017
Chart Import Volume of Soybeans in Major Soybean Importing Countries in 2017
Chart Major Sources of Soybean Imports to China, 2012-2017
Chart Soybean Yields in the U.S., 2013-2017
Chart Soybean Consumption in the U.S., 2013-2017
Chart Export Volume of Soybeans in the U.S., 2013-2017
Chart Import Prices of U.S. Soybeans in China, 2013-2018
Chart Costs of Soybean Production in China and the U.S. Separately in 2016 (CNY/hectare)
Chart Soybean Yields in Brazil, 2013-2017
Chart Import Prices of Brazilian Soybeans in China, 2013-2018
Chart Soybean Yields in Argentina, 2013-2017
Chart Import Prices of Argentine Soybeans in China, 2013-2018
Chart Profile of COFCO Corporation
Chart Profile of Jiusan Oils & Grains Industries Group Co., Ltd.
Chart Profile of China Grain Reserves Corporation
Chart Profile of Yihai Kerry
Chart Profile of Cargill

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