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Zimbabwe Country Risk Report Q4 2018

Zimbabwe Country Risk Report Q4 2018

Key View:

The Zimbabwean constitutional court's decision to uphold President Emmerson Mnangagwa's election decreases the prospects of instability in the short-term. The decision reduces uncertainty and will help to defuse tensions that would have remained in place if elections were re-run. Although the opposition appears to have rejected the court's decision, we believe that there will be little popular appetite for further protests.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks
Country Risk Summary
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Zimbabwean Reform Process To Proceed, But Only Very Slowly
TABLE: KEY REFORM AREAS
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
External Trade And Investment Outlook
Bleak External Account Picture Will Force Zimbabwean Government Into Reforms
Monetary Policy
Zimbabwean Currency Woes To Linger
Zimbabwe Country Risk Q4 2018ContentsPolitical Outlook
Domestic Politics
Short-Term Stability Likely Following Court Ruling But Dim Outlook For Reforms In Zimbabwe
Global Macro Outlook
Strong Growth, But Greater Headwinds Too
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: ZIMBABWE – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS

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