Zimbabwe Country Risk Report Q2 2015
The succession process in Zimbabwe has become somewhat clearer.
The removal of Vice-President Joice Mujuru at ZANU-PF’s five-yearcongress in early December 2014 seemingly clears the path for hermain rival Emmerson Mnangagwa to take the helm once Mugabeeventually departs the scene. Even so, there remains little uncertaintyover the issue, not least given that all the power now lies within thepresident’s hands.
Political and policy uncertainty will continue to deter much-neededinvestment into the moribund Zimbabwean economy, while a depreciatingSouth African rand and weak commodity prices will alsoweigh on economic activity.
The Zimbabwean economy will remain near deflationary territoryover the coming quarters owing to weak demand, a depreciatingSouth African rand and low oil prices.
Major Forecast Changes
No major forecast changes.
- Executive Summary
- Core Views
- Major Forecast Changes
- Key Risks To Outlook
- Chapter 1: Political Outlook
- SWOT Analysis
- BMI Political Risk Index
- Domestic Politics
- Succession Issue Clearer, But Major Uncertainty Remains
- The fall of Joice Mujuru and appointment of Emmerson Mnangagwa as presidential heir apparent gives greater clarity to Zimbabwe's
- succession process. Even so, there remains little uncertainty over the issue, not least given that all the power now lies within the
- president's hands.
- TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
- Long-Term Political Outlook
- Mugabe's Key Challenges
- Zimbabwe faces an uncertain political future following the resounding victory of President Robert Mugabe and his ZANU-PF party in
- the 2013. The main policy issues are likely to be the party's drive to indigenise the economy; questions about the independence of the
- judiciary and security services; and the Zimbabwean government's turbulent relationship with the West.
- Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
- SWOT Analysis
- BMI Economic Risk Index
- Economic Activity
- Economy Still Grappling With Multiple Challenges
- Political and policy uncertainty will continue to deter much-needed investment into the moribund Zimbabwean economy, while a
- depreciating South African rand and weak commodity prices will also weigh on economic activity.
- TABLE: Economic Acti vit y
- Balance Of Payments
- External Account Stability Masks Negative Trend
- Falling imports will continue to more than offset the impact of weaker export revenues on Zimbabwe's current account balance over the
- coming quarters. Even so, we believe this trend reflects the ill health of the economy.
- TABLE: Current Account
- Monetary Policy
- Inflation To Stay Close To Zero In 2015
- The Zimbabwean economy will continue to flirt with deflation over the coming quarters owing to weak aggregate demand, a depreciating
- South African rand and the impact of lower oil prices. We forecast annual inflation will remain at around zero in 2015.
- TABLE: Monetar y Polic y
- Banking Sector
- Non-Performing Loans To Weigh On Banks' Capital
- Falling capital and reserves at Zimbabwe's commercial banks are a result of the write-downs from non-performing loans. While positive
- in principle, the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe's plan to buy bad loans from banks will face financing difficulties.
- Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast
- The Zimbabwean Economy To 2024
- Policy Risks To Constrain Long-Term GDP Growth
- The performance of the Zimbabwean economy will remain inextricably linked to the policy and political climate over the coming
- TABLE: Long -Term Macr oec onomic Forecasts
- Chapter 4: Operational Risk
- SWOT Analysis
- Operational Risk Index
- Operational Risk
- TABLE: Operational Risk
- Availability Of Labour
- TABLE: Sub -Saharan Africa - Availabilit y Of Lab our
- TABLE: Top Ten Migrant Source Countries
- TABLE: Empl oyment by Sect or
- Crime Risk
- TABLE: SSA Crime Ris k
- TABLE: Crime Rates
- Chapter 5: BMI Global Assumptions
- Global Outlook
- Weaker EMs To Weigh On Growth
- Table : Global Assumpti ons
- Table: Developed States, Real GDP GrowtH, %
- Table : BMI VERSUS BLOO MBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
- Table : Emerging Mar kets , Real GDP Growt h, %