New Zealand Telecommunications Report Q4 2017

BMI Industry View

SWOT

Telecoms

Industry Forecast

Latest Updates

Structural Trends

Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data And Forecasts (New Zealand 2014-2021)

Industry Risk/Reward Index

Asia Pacific Risk/Reward Index

Table: Asia Pacific Telecoms Risk/Reward Index, Q417

New Zealand Risk/Reward Index

Market Overview

Market Drivers & Trends

Mobile

Wireline Voice & Broadband

Pay-TV

Regulatory Development

Regulatory Overview

Industry Risks

Main Development: Vodafone-Sky Merger

Competitive Landscape

Table: Key Players, New Zealand

Table: Mobile Market Overview

Table: Vodafone New Zealand

Table: 2degrees

Table: Spark

Table: Chorus Connections By Type ('000)

Table: SKY New Zealand

Company Profile

2degrees

Spark

Chorus

Vodafone New Zealand

Demographic Forecast

Table: Population Headline Indicators (New Zealand 1990-2025)

Table: Key Population Ratios (New Zealand 1990-2025)

Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (New Zealand 1990-2025)

Table: Population By Age Group (New Zealand 1990-2025)

Table: Population By Age Group % (New Zealand 1990-2025)

Glossary

Table: Glossary of Terms

Methodology

Industry Forecast Methodology

Sources

Risk/Reward Index Methodology

Table: Risk/Reward Index Indicators

Table: Weighting Of Indicators

BMI View: Organic growth in the mobile segment will remain slow as the penetration rate inches towardsthe 134% mark. The 3G/4G LTE segment will see steady growth as operators continue to invest in highspeedadvanced solutions across the country. Furthermore, the regulators blocked the planned merger ofVodafone and Sky in early 2017, amid concerns that the enlarged entity would have dominated NewZealand's wireline and mobile broadband markets. That decision seems likely to stand given the small sizeof the market and the small pool of service providers available to consumers. We believe the merger wouldhave driven innovation in product pricing and bundling and made greater use of national and rural fibrenetworks. The decision to block the merger, on the other hand, benefits 2degrees, the smallest mobileoperator, giving it time to further develop its premium converged services business.

Latest Updates & Industry Developments

All mobile connections to be on 3G/4G networks by 2020, although 2G platforms will still be availablefor machine-to-machine (M2M) applications. We now forecast 6.435mn mobile subscriptions by 2021.