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New Zealand Agribusiness Report Q2 2015

New Zealand Agribusiness Report Q2 2015

BMI View: We believe that increased access to international markets, particularly Taiwan and China, willprove to be the prime growth driver for the agribusiness sector in New Zealand over the medium to longterm. This will be supportive for both the dairy and the livestock segments. The dairy sector in particularwill benefit from export demand growth, as many other countries in Asia are facing growing domesticdemand and relatively limited production capacity. However, the outlook for the sector is weak for 2014/15.We forecast milk production to grow by a weak 0.7% year-on-year to 21.9mn tonnes, compared with the4.0% growth recorded in 2013/14 and the five-year growth average of 4.3%.

Key Trends

Milk production growth to 2018/19: 8% to 23.7mn tonnes. Given the small domestic consumptionbase and the high productivity of the sector, long-term expansion will mainly come from exportopportunities, particularly to Asia and the Middle East, which are forecast to enjoy significant dairyconsumption growth over our forecast period.


BMI Industry View
SWOT
Agribusiness
Industry Forecast
Livestock Outlook
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (New Zealand 2014-2019)
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (New Zealand 2009-2014)
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (New Zealand 2014-2019)
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (New Zealand 2009-2014)
Dairy Outlook
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (New Zealand 2014-2019)
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (New Zealand 2014-2019)
Table: Cheese Production & Consumption (New Zealand 2014-2019)
Table: Whole Milk Powder Production & Consumption (New Zealand 2014-2019)
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (New Zealand 2009-2014)
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (New Zealand 2009-2014)
Table: Cheese Production & Consumption (New Zealand 2009-2014)
Table: Whole Milk Powder Production & Consumption (New Zealand 2009-2014)
Commodities Price Analysis
Monthly Softs Strategy
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
Monthly Grains Strategy
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
Upstream Analysis
Asia GM Outlook
Table: Select Countries - GM Crops Use
Asia Machinery Outlook
Table: China Grain Public Production Support Programme (CNYbn)
Table: Select Countries - Average Size Of Farms, Hectares
Asia Fertiliser Outlook
Table: India - Fertiliser Subsidies, INR/kg
Regional Overview
Table: China - Ongoing And Future Agricultural Policy Reforms
Demographic Forecast
Table: Population Headline Indicators (New Zealand 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (New Zealand 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (New Zealand 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (New Zealand 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (New Zealand 1990-2025)
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sector-Specific Methodology

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