Zambia and Zimbabwe Telecommunications Q2 2019
In this Q219 update, both Zimbabwe and Zambia's telecoms sectors continue to perform in line with our forecasts. Wecould not rule out further SIM registration exercises in Zimbabwe. As such, there may be periods where subscription growth willaccelerate rapidly as operators vie for market share with aggressive promotions before falling back. Both markets still hold organicgrowth opportunities but 3G/4G services uptake will be the main drivers of the mobile sector through to the end of our forecastperiod in 2028. While we maintain our view that the entrance of Zambia's fourth mobile network operator, UZI Zambia, will spurintense price competition, service innovation and network expansions into previously-unserved and underserved areas of thecountry, it is concerning that the operator has yet to launch services following a series of regulatory and operational delays. In thewireline segment, increasing access to mobile technology will hamper growth of fixed-voice subscriptions in both markets. From riskperspective, continued government intervention in the sector poses a downside risk to our growth forecasts; in light of the revisedmobile money taxation regime in Zimbabwe, we reiterate our caution against the growing propensity of government's to imposeonerous taxes on the telecoms sector, to bolster state revenues.
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