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Zambia Agribusiness Report Q2 2016

Zambia Agribusiness Report Q2 2016

BMI View: We project stable but limited growth for the Zambian agricultural sector over the next fiveyears, as the country will remain a prime supplier of corn and sugar to the South West Africa region.

Continued kwacha weakness will translate into a higher cost of imported inputs, thereby reducing fertiliseruse across Zambian crops. On the consumption side, volatile corn output and limited entry from otherproducers on the sugar market will keep prices elevated for Zambian consumers.

Key BMI Forecasts

Zambian corn production growth from 2015/16 to 2019/20: 1.6% to 2.8mn tonnes. We have reviseddown our corn production forecast due to our Country Risk team's expectation for the kwacha todepreciate heavily over the next five years. This will translate into a higher cost of imported inputs,thereby reducing fertiliser use across the Zambian crop.

Zambian sugar production growth from 2015/16 to 2019/20: 3.1% to 524,200 tonnes. The expecteddepreciation of the kwacha will also affect Zambia's sugar sector, as producers will face increased inputcosts, which will weigh on growth.

2016 real GDP growth: 3.4% (up from 3.1% last year)

2016 consumer price inflation: 18.5% (up from 13.9% last year)

BMI universe agribusiness market value: USD1.3bn in 2015/16, a 2.8% increase on 2014/15.


BMI Industry View
SWOT
Agribusiness
Industry Forecast
Grains Outlook
Table: Zambia
Grains Production & Consumption Outlook
Table: Risk To Outlook
Table: Zambia
Grains Production & Consumption (20122020)
Sugar Outlook
Table: Zambia
Sugar Production & Consumption Outlook
Table: Risks To Outlook
Table: Zambia Sugar Production & Consumption (2012
2020)
Commodity Price Analysis
Global Commodities Strategy
Table: Select Commodities
Performance And BMI Forecasts
Upstream Analysis
Africa GM Outlook
Table: Farm Size By Region
Africa Machinery Outlook
Table: How Africa Compares With Other Regions
Table: Farm Size By Region (2012)
Africa Fertiliser Outlook
Downstream Analysis
Food
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Food Sales (Zambia 2013
2020)
Regional Overview
Middle East & Africa Regional Overview
Demographic Forecast
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Zambia 1990
2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Zambia 1990
2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Zambia 1990
2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Zambia 1990
2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Zambia 1990
2025)
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
SectorSpecific Methodology

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