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Yemen Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016

Yemen Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016

BMI View: The ongoing civil war has put Yemen's oil and gas industry to a standstill, as the majority of oiland gas companies and facilities suspended their operations due to security concerns. We expect abovegroundrisks to continue to impact near-term production and challenge longer term efforts to boostinvestment.Latest Updates and Key Forecasts

In February 2016, Australia's Petsec Energy acquired 100% participating interest in, and operatorship of,the Damis Production License in the Republic of Yemen's Block S-1. The Damis PL holds five oil andgas discoveries and a further four undeveloped oil and gas fields. Prior to its suspension in 2014, the AnNagyah oil field within the block produced 25mn barrels of oil since 2004 from 25 wells, reaching a peakoil rate of 12,716b/d (Rigzone).

In January 2016, a blast has hit pipelines connecting oil storage tanks with the refinery in the city ofAden. No damage to the refinery itself was reported.

During 2015, virtually all international oil and gas companies suspended their oil and gas explorationactivities on account of unstable political and security environment in the country. We believe thatpolitical and security risks will remain the major factors limiting Yemen's underground potential, and weforecast the country's oil and gas reserves will decline by 13% and 1.7% respectively across out forecastperiod to 2025.• Yemen's oil production is forecast to decline from an estimated 122,500b/d in 2015 to 93,160b/d by2025, but we note a significant downside risk to these projections arising from the ongoing civil war.• Yemen's gas production collapsed in 2015 due to the closure of the major production facility - YemenLNG. The estimated gas output of just 0.8bcm in 2015 (down from 7.8bcm in 2014) was exclusivelydirected to satisfy domestic needs. We do not see greater gas production in Yemen until the civil warsubsides.


BMI Industry View
Table: Headline Forecasts (Yemen 2014-2020)
SWOT
Oil & Gas SWOT
Industry Forecast
Upstream Exploration
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Upstream Projects
Table: Key Upstream Projects
Upstream Production - Oil
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Oil Production (Yemen 2014-2019)
Table: Oil Production (Yemen 2020-2025)
Upstream Production - Gas
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Gas Production (Yemen 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Production (Yemen 2020-2025)
Refining
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Yemen 2014-2019)
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Yemen 2020-2025)
Refined Fuels Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Yemen 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Yemen 2020-2025)
Gas Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Gas Consumption (Yemen 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Consumption (Yemen 2020-2025)
Trade - Oil
Crude Oil Trade
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Yemen 2014-2020)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Yemen 2020-2025)
Fuels Trade
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Yemen 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Yemen 2020-2025)
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Gas Net Exports (Yemen 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Net Exports (Yemen 2020-2025)
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Middle East - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Table: Middle East Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Upstream: Index Resilient In Lower Price Environment
Table: Middle East Upstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Downstream: Limited Opportunities
Table: Middle East Downstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Yemen - Risk/Reward Index
Market Overview
Yemen Energy Market Overview
Regulatory Structure
Fiscal Regime
Table: Yemen - Upstream Tax Regime
Licensing Regime
Table: Yemen - Contracts and Licensing Regime
Licensing Rounds
Table: Yemen's 2013 Acreage Offer
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
Table: Oil Refineries In Yemen
Oil Pipelines
Oil Terminal
LNG Terminal
Regional Overview
Middle East Oil And Gas Regional Overview
Oil Production: Weak Prices Have Limited Impact On Growth
Oil Consumption: Gradual Subsidy Reform To Temper Demand Growth
Refining Capacity: 2mn b/d Of New Capacity By 2020
Gas Production: Low Oil Prices Hinder Gas Progress
Gas Consumption: Switch To Gas Power Will Boost Demand
Table: Middle East - Oil And Gas Production, Refining Capacity And Trade (2013-2024)
Glossary
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Source
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Weighting

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