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Yemen Country Risk Report Q4 2019

Yemen Country Risk Report Q4 2019

Heightened regional tensions could embolden Saudi Arabia and Yemen's Houthi militants to ramp up attacks on each other. Meanwhile, rising tensions between the US and Iran reduce the likelihood that the US Congress successfully impedes the Trump administration's support for the coalition, which may provide it with greater strategic latitude. This could combine to increase the threat to an already fragile UN-brokered ceasefire in Yemen's port city of Hodeidah.

We also believe that rising aid flows will support Yemen's economy in 2019, bringing real GDP growth up to 5.5%, from an estimated contraction of 0.8% in 2018. Most of the funding will come from Saudi Arabia and the UAE via both official and unofficial, bilateral channels. Reduced levels of violence should also encourage more private sector activity, although we note that the risks of a re-escalation in tensions remain high.

Key Risks

Yemen's economic recovery will rely on foreign (especially Saudi and Emirati) assistance for the foreseeable future. This makes the country's highly vulnerable to external shocks. Another drop in oil prices could for example prevent Gulf allies from financing reconstruction.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks
Country Risk Summary
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Yemen's Economy Set For Modest Recovery
10-Year Forecast
The Yemeni Economy To 2028
Bleak Outlook Even In Post-Conflict Scenario
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Regional Tensions To Threaten Fragile Ceasefire In Yemen
Long-Term Political Outlook
Fragile, Federalised State To Emerge
Global Macro Outlook
Trade Tensions And Slowing Momentum Point To Weaker Growth Outlook, Higher Risks
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2018-2023)
TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % Y-O-Y
Index Tables
TABLE: YEMEN – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS

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