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Yemen Country Risk Report 20 2018

Yemen Country Risk Report 20 2018

The UN’s renewed push to negotiate between the main parties of the Yemen conflict is unlikely to produce a lasting resolution as neither side appears willing to compromise at this stage. The Houthi rebels will continue to fire missiles into Saudi territory over the quarters ahead, creating potential for further conflict escalation and keeping Saudi-Iranian tensions elevated.

The ongoing conflict will prevent a sustained uptick in Yemen’s hydrocarbon exports over the quarters ahead, ensuring continued depreciation of the rial and associated elevated inflation. Coupled with the government’s waning ability to pay out public sector salaries, this will cause consumption to fall.

Key Risks

Yemen’s economic recovery will rely on foreign assistance. This makes the country highly vulnerable to external shocks. Another drop in oil prices could for example prevent Gulf allies from financing reconstruction.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Economic Risk Index
Economic Growth Outlook
Economic Conditions To Remain Dire
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
The Yemeni Economy To 2027
Bleak Outlook As Energy Exports Contract
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Political Risk Index
Domestic Politics
UN Peace Plan No Panacea To Conflict
TABLE: CONFLICT–KEY ACTORS
Long-Term Political Outlook
Fragile, Federalised State To Emerge
Chapter 4: BMI Global Macro Outlook
Trade Tensions Take Centre Stage
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: YEMEN – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS

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