Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q1 2016
BMI View: We expect 2016 to see uneven growth across Vietnam's different freight modes.
Whereas on the back of improved domestic consumption and good trade dynamics road freight will grow by a strong 8.1% and air freight will also see a good year, rail freight will show a weak performance as domestic crude oil production will embark on a downward trend.
Over the medium term we expect these trends to continue.
We expect Vietnam to post strong economic growth of 6.6% in 2016, coming in on the back of strong FDI inflows, a pick-up in domestic credit growth and relatively low inflation of 2.1%.
Trade will grow strongly with exports and imports rising by 6.2% and 7.3% y-o-y respectively in real terms.
Despite the challenging regional environment, exports will post strong growth as the economic recovery in the USA, Vietnam's main trading partner, will make up for the weak demand from China and Japan.
Imports will benefit from the improved domestic environment, in particular the lower inflation rate, which is forecast to generally follow a more stable path over the coming years.
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