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Vietnam Agribusiness Report Q2 2016

Vietnam Agribusiness Report Q2 2016

BMI View: Recent developments in the country's economic and business environments add further weightto our positive view on Vietnam's agribusiness sector. The industry holds strong growth opportunities interms of production, exports and retail sales, particularly with regard to the rice, coffee, livestock and dairysectors. Moreover, economic and financial integration in South East Asia will benefit Vietnam's exports ofrice, dairy and coffee. However, Vietnam is facing growing competition in its key markets. The fulfilment ofits promising potential will only be achieved if the country steps up its competitiveness and improves bothproduct quality and supply chain efficiency. Vietnam will have to significantly ramp up investments on cropproductivity in order to not be left behind and, if it does, it will be able to produce more value-added cropsand maintain its status as an export spearhead.

Key Forecasts

Sugar consumption growth to 2020: 23.0% to 2.4mn tonnes. Rising income, population and growingconsumption of manufactured food products will help sugar consumption grow quickly in the comingyears. Domestic production growth will not be able to keep up with consumption expansion.

Coffee production growth to 2019/20: 13.2% to 31.6mn 60kg bags. After more than a decade of strongoutput growth, coffee production expansion will slow down in the coming years. Low coffee prices andthe attractiveness of alternative crops such as pepper will lead to a slowdown in new planted area growth.

Milk production growth to 2019/20: 61.9% to 876,000 tonnes. Dramatic increases in cattle numbersand increased public and private sector investment - part of the effort to reduce the country's growingimport dependency - will be the main boost to growth. Commercialisation will also play a key role aslarger, more efficient farms come to play a greater role in milk production.

2016 BMI universe agribusiness market value: USD44.1bn (up from USD43.4bn in 2015; growthexpected to average 3.3% annually between 2016 and 2019).

2016 real GDP growth: 6.6% (down from 6.7% expected in 2015; predicted to average 6.4% over2015-2020).

2016 consumer price index: 2.1% y-o-y (up from 0.8% expected in 2015; predicted to average 4.3%over 2015-2020).

BMI Industry View
Industry Forecast
Grains Outlook
Table: Vietnam - Grains Production And Consumption Outlook
Table: Vietnam - Risks To Grains Outlook
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Vietnam 2013-2020)
Rice Outlook
Table: Vietnam - Rice Production And Consumption Outlook
Table: Vietnam - Risks To Rice Outlook
Table: Rice Production & Consumption (Vietnam 2013-2020)
Dairy Outlook
Table: Vietnam - Dairy Production And Consumption Outlook
Table: Vietnam - Risks To Dairy Outlook
Table: Vietnam - Planned Investment In Milk Production Capacity
Table: Dairy Production & Consumption (Vietnam 2013-2020)
Livestock Outlook
Table: Vietnam - Livestock Production And Consumption Outlook
Table: Vietnam - Risks To Livestock Outlook
Table: Livestock Production & Consumption (Vietnam 2013-2020)
Coffee Outlook
Table: Vietnam - Coffee Production And Consumption Outlook
Table: Vietnam - Risks To Coffee Outlook
Table: Coffee Production & Consumption (Vietnam 2013-2020)
Commodities Price Analysis
Global - Global Commodities Strategy
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts
Upstream Analysis
Asia GM Outlook
Table: Selected Countries - GM Crops Use (mn hectares)
Asia Machinery Outlook
Table: Select Countries - Average Size Of Farms, Hectares
Asia Fertiliser Outlook
Downstream Analysis
Canned Food
Regional Overview
Table: Impact Of El Niño On Crops
Competitive Landscape
Table: Major Agribusiness Companies (USDmn)
Demographic Forecast
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Vietnam 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Vietnam 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Vietnam 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Vietnam 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Vietnam 1990-2025)
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sector-Specific Methodology

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