Venezuela Telecommunications Report Q2 2016
BMI View: The election of a more pro-business government offers hope that Venezuela's stagnant telecomsmarket can be reinvigorated through the application of external investment. However, the judiciary andcivil service are largely manned by socialist sympathisers, and we expect efforts to privatise incumbentCANTV will be resisted. Additionally, economic reforms will be slow to be applied and slower still to bringany tangible benefits, meaning that disposable incomes will remain low.
Latest Updates & Industry Developments
The mobile market shrank markedly in 2015 owing to the disconnection of inactive accounts andfalling incomes. 3G/4G uptake proved more vibrant than expected due to state subsidies and enforcedlow tariffs. We forecast 29.4mn mobile subscriptions by 2020, of which 14.8mn will be 3G/4G.
The 'broadband' market has been shrinking as consumers discard dedicated mobile broadband accessin favour of smartphone-delivered voice-and-data services. The ageing last-mile access network ofCANTV cannot support wireline broadband expansion unless significant investment is obtained. Weforecast 3.5mn broadband subscriptions by 2020, versus 3.4mn at the end of 2015.
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