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Venezuela Power Report Q2 2016

Venezuela Power Report Q2 2016

BMI View: Venezuela's power sector continues to struggle under high demand with extensive outagescaused by ageing infrastructure and a lack of sufficient capacity. With oil revenues falling, extensivesubsidies and a generally uninspiring economic environment, we do not expect to see any significantinvestment, either public of private, in power infrastructure in the short- to medium-term. As such ourforecasts for growth in generation and capacity remain broadly unchanged this quarter. Over the longerterm there is certainly the need for significant investment in generation and transmission infrastructure, andwith political change in the pipeline following December 2015's elections, we may see a more positiveinvestment environment down the road with sectors such as hydropower and non-hydropower renewablespresenting extensive growth potential.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

With no new projects entering the development pipeline we are maintaining our current forecasts forgrowth in generation of 6.2% in 2016 followed by a more subdued growth of 1.5% annually over theremainder of the forecast period, meaning consumption will continue to outstrip supply growth.

Power outages continue to plague Venezuela, despite campaigns by the government to reduceconsumption. In October 2015 the country's largest oil refining complex at Amuay and Cardon was shutdown by a power failure and numerous local power cuts, many of which have been attributed to sabotage,frequently disrupt businesses and households for several hours a day.


BMI Industry View
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Venezuela 2015-2021)
SWOT
Industry Forecast
Venezuela Snapshot
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Venezuela 2014-2019)
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic And Demographic Data (Venezuela 2020-2025)
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
Venezuela Power Forecast Scenario
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
Thermal Generation And Capacity Forecast
Hydropower Generation And Capacity Forecast
Renewables Generation And Capacity Forecast
Total Electricity Generation And Capacity Forecasts
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Venezuela 2014-2019)
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Venezuela 2020-2025)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Venezuela 2014-2019)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Venezuela 2020-2025)
Electricity Consumption
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Venezuela 2014-2019)
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Venezuela 2020-2025)
Transmission And Distribution
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Venezuela 2014-2019)
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Venezuela 2020-2025)
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Venezuela 2014-2019)
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Venezuela 2020-2025)
Industry Risk/Reward Index
Table: MACRI'S PLANNED POWER POLICY REFORMS
Table: Latin America Power Risk/Reward Index (Scores Out Of 100
Venezuela Power Risk/Reward Index
Rewards
Risks
Market Overview
Key Policies And Market Structure
Regulation And Competition
Pricing
Venezuela Power Projects Database
Table: Venezuela - Top 10 Projects By Capacity Type (MW)
Competitive Landscape
Corpoelec
Edelca
EDC
Regional Overview
Latin America Power: Key Themes For 2016
Glossary
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Methodology
Methodology And Sources
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sources
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators

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