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Venezuela Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016

Venezuela Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016

BMI View: We maintain our cautious outlook for Venezuela's oil and gas sector despite vast belowgroundpotential and ambitious production plans by state-owned PDVSA. We expect Venezuela to continueto underperform given the large scope of above-ground challenges, including excessive politicalinterference, chronic underinvestment, an unattractive operating environment and the precarious financialsituation of PDVSA. Moreover, the sustained fall in global oil prices will deteriorate production growthprospects as both PDVSA and international investors face declining revenues and a reduction in availablecapex funds.

Latest Updates And Key Forecasts

Our crude production forecast for 2016 predicts a 3.0% y-o-y decline amid sustained weakness in crudeoil markets. This will negatively impact available investment in Venezuela's upstream sector as thegovernment contends with its significant public sector spending plans.

The landmark victory of the opposition party in Venezuela's legislative elections held on December 6marks a clear break from the country's recent past, and will serve as a strong mandate for reform. Whilethis marks the first power shift away from the ruling party in nearly 17 years, the United Socialist Partyof Venezuela (PSUV)'s dominance in other branches of government and divisions within the opposingcoalition will preclude a swift change in policy direction.


BMI Industry View
Table: Headline Forecasts (Venezuela 2014-2020)
Latest Updates And Key Forecasts
SWOT
Industry Forecast
Upstream Exploration
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Upstream Projects
Table: Venezuela - Major Upstream Projects
Upstream Production - Oil
Latest Updates
Structural Trends:
Table: Oil Production (Venezuela 2014-2019)
Table: Oil Production (Venezuela 2020-2025)
Upstream Production - Gas
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Gas Production (Venezuela 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Production (Venezuela 2020-2025)
Refining
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Venezuela 2014-2019)
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Venezuela 2020-2025)
Refined Fuels Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Venezuela 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Venezuela 2020-2025)
Gas Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Gas Consumption (Venezuela 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Consumption (Venezuela 2020-2025)
Trade - Oil
Crude Oil
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Venezuela 2014-2019)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Venezuela 2020-2025)
Refined Products
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Venezuela 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Venezuela 2020-2025)
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Gas Net Exports (Venezuela 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Net Exports (Venezuela 2020-2025)
Industry Risk Reward Index
Latin America - Risk/Reward Index
Table: Latin America - Composite Risk/Reward Index, Out of 100
Composite RRI: Sector Shifts Continue To Take Shape
Upstream RRI: Few Shifts, But Changes Loom
Table: Latin America - Upstream Risk/Reward Index, Out of 100
Downstream RRI: Medium-Term Outlook Reinforces Current Dynamics
Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Index, Out of 100
Venezuela - Risk/Reward Index
Venezuela Upstream Index - Overview
Downstream Index - Overview
Market Overview
Venezuela Energy Market Overview
Overview
State Role
Licensing And Regulation
Government Policy
International Energy Relations
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
Table: Active Refineries In Venezuela
Oil Pipelines
LNG Terminals
Gas Pipelines
Competitive Landscape
Competitive Landscape Summary
Table: Key Players - Venezuela Oil & Gas Sector
Table: Key Upstream Players
Table: Key Downstream Player
Company Profile
PDVSA
Chevron
Repsol Venezuela
Total Venezuela
Other Summaries
Regional Overview
Latin America Overview
Table: Latin America Oil & Gas Production, Refining Capacity & Trade
Glossary
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Source
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Weighting

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