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Venezuela Insurance Report Q4 2017

BMI View: We have made a number of negative revisions to our macroeconomic outlook for Venezuela inthe Q4 2017 update. The Venezuelan economy continues to be plagued by a number of fiscal andmacroeconomic problems including persistent and chronic hyperinflation, weak government fundamentals,declining real GDP and poor savings and household consumption levels. Furthermore, all metricsregarding insurance reporting are distorted due to hyperinflation and a very complex exchange rateregime. We have further downgraded the GDP contraction rate for 2017 and do not estimate any real GDPgrowth till end 2020 based on input from the BMI in house Country Risk Team's latest negative assessmentof the economy.

In H2 2017, Venezuela has been witnessing a very high rate of social and political unrest, coupled withprotests, armed forces interventions and political strife. The ground reality in the country being far worsewith reports suggesting widespread poverty, hunger, famine and a serious shortage of food, medicine andbasic essentials. We are now forecasting another year of notable decline in terms of real GDP, rampant andpersistent chronic hyperinflation and reduced spending powers, all factors hurting insurance industryprowess.


BMI Industry View
Table: Headline Insurance Forecasts (Venezuela 2014-2021)
SWOT
Insurance
Industry Forecast
Life Premiums Forecast
Table: Life Premiums (Venezuela 2014-2021)
Table: Life Insurance Claims (Venezuela 2009-2016)
Non-Life Premiums Forecast
Table: Non-Life Premiums (Venezuela 2014-2021)
Table: Non-Life Insurance Claims (Venezuela 2010-2016)
Non-Life Sub-Sector Forecast
Table: Non-Life Insurance Premiums by Product Line (Venezuela 2014-2021)
Industry Risk Reward Index
Latin America And The Caribbean Insurance Risk/Reward Index
Table: Latin America And The Caribbean Insurance Risk/Reward Index, Q4 2017
Market Overview
Life Market Overview
Product Offering
Competitive Landscape
Table: Life Insurance Premiums (USDmn)
Non-Life Market Overview
Product Offering
Competitive Landscape
Table: Non-Life Market Shares (USDmn)
Company Profile
Caracas de Liberty Mutual
Horizonte
Seguros Mercantil
MAPFRE La Seguridad
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sector-Specific Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Indicators
Table: Weighting of Indicators

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