Uzbekistan Power Q2 2020
This quarter we have extended our forecasts to 2029. This notwithstanding, we maintain our relatively bearish forecastfor Uzbekistan's power sector over the coming decade owing to a limited project pipeline, outdated transmission infrastructure andan unattractive business environment, which will constrain the growth of the power sector in Uzbekistan. While we expect naturalgas sector to continue to be dominant in the power mix, accounting for around 80% of total generation, we note that efforts todiversify the country's power mix, including plans to build the country's first nuclear stations and to install 2GW of renewable energybetween 2017 and 2025, present upside risks to our forecasts. Reforms undertaken by President Shavkat Mirziyoyev'sadministration to Uzbekistan's attractiveness for foreign investment and open up pathways for greater integration of power marketsin Central Asia could boost the sector if successful.
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