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Uzbekistan Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016

Uzbekistan Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016

BMI View: Our outlook for Uzbekistan's gas sector remains stable as we expect gas production and exportfigures to remain relatively strong across our forecast period to 2025. However, the country's oil sector willcontinue on a downward slope leaving the country increasingly more dependent on refined fuels importsand subjecting it to potential fuel shortages.

Latest Updates And Key Forecasts

Uzbekistan's gas exports to Russia could rise in 2016, as Gazprom has recently suspended gas purchasesfrom Turkmenistan, according to Turkmengaz. At the same time, Gazprom said that it would increasepurchases of Uzbek gas. According to recent media reports citing unidentified Gazprom official, Russiacould import around 3.1bcm of gas from Uzbekistan in 2016.

In late 2015, Uzbekneftegaz postponed the start of the project to build a plant for oil shale processing ata later date, according to news agency Trend sources cited by Bloomberg. Rescheduling is related to therecent decline in oil prices, as well as the fact that the company has not chosen a licensor of shaleprocessing technology.

In October 2015, Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corporation (JOGMEC) finalised fourconsensus documents for technical cooperation related to oil and gas with Uzbekneftegaz. JOGMEC isexpected to study unidentified oil and gas sites in the country in early 2016.

We expect Uzbekistan's oil and gas reserves to continue declining at a modest, but stable pace across ourreview period. Between 2016 and 2025, we forecast oil reserves to shrink by an average annual rate of2.0% and reach 490mn bbl. In terms of gas, the reserves' decline is expected to average 0.6% per annumover the same period. Nonetheless, with total gas reserves forecast at 1,726bcm in 2025, Uzbekistan willremain a heavyweight in this respect.


BMI Industry View
Table: Headline Forecasts (Uzbekistan 2014-2020)
SWOT
Industry Forecast
Upstream Exploration
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Upstream Projects
Table: Uzbekistan - Major Projects
Upstream Production - Oil
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Oil Production (Uzbekistan 2014-2019)
Table: Oil Production (Uzbekistan 2020-2025)
Upstream Production - Gas
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Gas Production (Uzbekistan 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Production (Uzbekistan 2020-2025)
Refining
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Uzbekistan 2014-2019)
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Uzbekistan 2020-2025)
Refined Fuels Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Uzbekistan 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Uzbekistan 2020-2025)
Gas Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Gas Consumption (Uzbekistan 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Consumption (Uzbekistan 2020-2025)
Trade - Oil
Crude Oil Trade Forecasts
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Uzbekistan 2014-2019)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Uzbekistan 2020-2025)
Fuels Trade Forecasts
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Uzbekistan 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Uzbekistan 2020-2025)
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Gas Net Exports (Uzbekistan 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Net Exports (Uzbekistan 2020-2025)
Industry Risk Reward Index
Central And Eastern Europe - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Table: Regional Risk/Reward Index Averages - High Risk, Low Reward In Central And Eastern Europe
Table: Central And Eastern Europe - Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Index
Upstream: China Still The Target Market
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Downstream: Turkish STAR Only Bright Spot In Weak Market
Table: Central And Eastern Europe - Downstream Risk/Reward Index
Uzbekistan - Risk/Reward Index
Uzbekistan Upstream Index - Rewards
Uzbekistan Upstream Index - Risks
Uzbekistan Downstream Index - Overview
Uzbekistan Downstream Index - Rewards
Uzbekistan Downstream Index- Risks
Market Overview
Uzbekistan Energy Market Overview
Regulatory Structure
Fiscal Regime
Table: Uzbekistan - Upstream Tax Regime
Licensing Regime
Licensing Rounds
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
Table: Refineries In Uzbekistan
Oil Shale Plant
Oil Pipelines
Gas Processing Plants
Gas Storage Facilities
Gas Pipelines
Gas Filling Stations
Competitive Landscape
Competitive Landscape Summary
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies
Table: Key Upstream Players
Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Profile
Lukoil
Uzbekneftegaz
Other Summaries
Regional Overview
Central And Eastern Europe Oil And Gas Regional Overview
Oil Production: Output Growth Stalling
Oil Consumption: Weak EM Growth Softens Demand
Refining Capacity: Modernisation Over Capacity Growth
Natural Gas Production: Gas Ramp-Up Depends On China's Hunger
Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions
Gas Consumption: Demand Falters On Struggling Economies
Table: Central And Eastern Europe - Oil And Gas Production And Consumption, Refining Capacity And Trade
Glossary
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Source
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Weighting

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