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Uruguay Country Risk Report Q3 2018

Uruguay Country Risk Report Q3 2018

Real GDP growth in Uruguay will remain modest over the coming quarters, supported by external demand, consumption and a likely improvement in investment.

However, a severe drought in the northern half of the country poses downside risks to agricultural production. Moreover, opposition to investment promotion efforts could undermine investor confidence.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Economic Risk Index
Economic Growth Outlook
External Demand Will Support Growth
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS EXPORTS (2017)
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS IMPORTS (2017)
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
Monetary Policy
FX Weakness Will Boost Inflation
Monetary Policy Framework
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
The Uruguayan Economy To 2027
Exposure To Trade Presents Headwinds To Growth
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Political Risk Index
Domestic Politics
Reform Efforts Hitting A Wall
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
Operational Risk
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
Business Crime
TABLE: BUSINESS RESPONSE TO WHITE COLLAR CRIME AND ORGANISED CRIME
Education
TABLE: URUGUAY AND OECD AVERAGE STUDENT PERFORMANCE SCORES, 2015
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
Key Divergences Emerging In World Economy
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: URUGUAY – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS

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