Uruguay Country Risk Report Q3 2018
Real GDP growth in Uruguay will remain modest over the coming quarters, supported by external demand, consumption and a likely improvement in investment.
However, a severe drought in the northern half of the country poses downside risks to agricultural production. Moreover, opposition to investment promotion efforts could undermine investor confidence.
Executive Summary Core Views Chapter 1: Economic Outlook SWOT Analysis BMI Economic Risk Index Economic Growth Outlook External Demand Will Support Growth GDP By Expenditure Outlook TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS Outlook On External Position TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS EXPORTS (2017) TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS IMPORTS (2017)TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS Monetary Policy FX Weakness Will Boost Inflation Monetary Policy Framework Structural Fiscal Position TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast The Uruguayan Economy To 2027 Exposure To Trade Presents Headwinds To Growth TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS Chapter 3: Political Outlook SWOT Analysis BMI Political Risk Index Domestic PoliticsReform Efforts Hitting A Wall TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW Chapter 4: Operational Risk Operational Risk TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK Business Crime TABLE: BUSINESS RESPONSE TO WHITE COLLAR CRIME AND ORGANISED CRIME Education TABLE: URUGUAY AND OECD AVERAGE STUDENT PERFORMANCE SCORES, 2015Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook Key Divergences Emerging In World Economy TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y TABLE: URUGUAY – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS