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United States Retail Report Q2 2016

United States Retail Report Q2 2016

BMI View: The US retail sector is continuing its revival, as the economic recovery is centred aroundconsumption. Lower oil prices, low inflation, tightening labour market and low interest rates are all fuellinghousehold spending. Growth is coming from online sales in particular, as e-commerce continues itsexplosive trajectory. While interest rates are set to rise, this will be a gradual process. We therefore expectthese trends to continue to play out, with opportunities across the wide retail sector spectrum.

Key Views And Developments

We expect household consumption to continue to improve, thanks to a stronger labour market(unemployment stands at 5.0%, its lowest rate since prior to the 2008-2009 recession), and higher wages.This will be further supported by extremely low inflation (the latest figure came in at 0.2% y-o-y for themonth of October and has remained below the 2.0% target since April 2012), which will help support realpurchasing power.

Greater consumer demand for convenience will drive the expansion of smaller format stores and onlinegrocery retail in the US over our forecast period to 2019. Combined with intensifying competition in thesector, it will create challenges for mainstream retailers such as Walmart and put pressure on margins.

BMI Industry View
Industry Forecast
Headline Retail Forecast
Table: Total Household Spending (United States 2013-2020)
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (United States 2013-2020)
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % of GDP (United States 2013-2020)
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (United States 2013-2020)
Retail Sector Forecast
Food, Drink and Tobacco
Table: Food, Drink & Tobacco Spending (United States 2013-2020)
Clothing and Footwear
Table: Clothing & Footwear Spending (United States 2013-2020)
Household Goods
Table: Household Goods Spending (United States 2013-2020)
Table: Consumer Electronics Spending (United States 2013-2020)
Table: Toys, Sports, Gardens and Pets Spending (United States 2013-2020)
Personal Care
Table: Personal Care Spending (United States 2013-2020)
Household Numbers and Income Forecast
Table: Household Income Data (United States 2013-2020)
Table: Labour Market Data (United States 2013-2020)
Demographic Forecast
Table: Total Population (United States 2013-2020)
Table: Population: Babies (United States 2013-2020)
Table: Population: Young Children (United States 2013-2020)
Table: Population: Children (United States 2013-2020)
Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children (United States 2013-2020)
Table: Population: Young People (United States 2013-2020)
Table: Population: Older Teenagers (United States 2013-2020)
Table: Population: 21yrs + (United States 2013-2020)
Table: Population: Young Adults (United States 2013-2020)
Table: Population: Middle Aged (United States 2013-2020)
Table: Population: Urban (United States 2013-2020)
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Developed States Risk/Reward Index
Table: Developed States Retail Risk/Reward Index, Q216
Industry Risk Reward Index
Market Overview
Retail Formats
Integrated Retailers
Mass Grocery Retailers
Household Retailers
Consumer Electronics
Competitive Landscape
Clothing and Footwear
Table: Major Clothing And Footwear Retailers
Household Goods
Table: Major Household Goods Retailers
Table: Major Electronics Retailers
Department Stores
Table: Major Department Stores Retailers
Table: Major E-commerce Retailers
Table: Major Pharmacies Retailers
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators

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