BMI View: The US will lead gains in non-OPEC crude oil production over the next year despite prolongedoil price weakness. Production growth will slow over our 10-year forecast period, reflectingstrong depletion rates in shale oil fields, a glut in the domestic market for light sweet crude and lower oilprices dampening a portion of upstream investment. Fuels consumption growth will decline over the nextdecade as efficiency gains take root. In the gas market, a ramp-up in production will respond to growingcapacity from LNG export facilities and petrochemical plants.
Latest Updates and Key Forecasts
Crude production in the US is staging a comeback in 2017. Having declined by approximately 540,000barrels per day (b/d) in 2016, we expect the US will grow by an average rate of 3.9% year-on-year (y-oy).Through H117, total crude production rose by nearly 250,000b/d and by 550,000b/d since bottomingout in September 2016.