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United States Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016

United States Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016

BMI View: The US will continue to lead gains in non-OPEC crude oil production over the next decade despite the fall in oil prices. High growth rates seen in recent years will moderate through our 10-year forecast period, reflecting abrupt depletion rates in shale oil fields, a glut in the domestic market for light sweet crude, and lower oil prices dampening some production. Consumption of fuels will be largely stagnant throughout the course of the next decade as energy efficiency gains take root. In the gas market, we forecast a ramp-up in production when demand gears up from 2016 onwards as new LNG export facilities and petrochemical plants come online.

We have downgraded our US oil production forecast as continued downside pressure on oil prices restrains investment into unconventional plays. Falling oil prices, especially on the WTI contract, have begun to pressure developments in the core of the US oil industry. As efficiency gains dwindle, we now expect the decline in shale output will outweigh gains from deepwater projects in 2016, resulting in a contraction for the year. With prices now trading below USD40/bbl, we caution that even more profitable 'sweet spot' areas will suffer from declines over the coming quarters.

A further deceleration in drilling and completion activity will exacerbate the slowdown in US shale oil production in H116. The pullback in production will support crude prices later in the year, encouraging the most efficient producers to resume upstream development. The strengthening of crude prices in H216 will not usher in a revival of shale oil production. Producers will be under continued pressure to operate amid tight financing conditions, suggesting y-o-y growth will not return before oil prices average USD55-60/bbl, forecast for late 2017.


BMI Industry View
Table: Headline Forecasts (United States 2014-2020)
SWOT
Oil & Gas SWOT
Industry Forecast
Upstream Exploration
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Upstream Projects
Table: US - Key Upstream Projects
Upstream Production - Oil
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Oil Production (United States 2014-2019)
Table: Oil Production (United States 2020-2025)
Upstream Production - Gas
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Gas Production (United States 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Production (United States 2020-2025)
Refining
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (United States 2014-2019)
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (United States 2020-2025)
Refined Fuels Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends:
Table: Final Renewable Fuel Volumes
Table: Refined Products Consumption (United States 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Products Consumption (United States 2020-2025)
Gas Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends:
Table: Gas Consumption (United States 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Consumption (United States 2020-2025)
Trade - Oil
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (United States 2014-2020)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (United States 2020-2025)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (United States 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (United States 2020-2025)
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Gas Net Exports (United States 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Net Exports (United States 2020-2025)
Industry Risk Reward Index
North America And Western Europe - Risk/Reward Index
Table: North America And Western Europe - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Upstream: North America To Maintain Lead
Table: North America And Western Europe - Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Downstream: US Widens Lead
Table: North America And Western Europe - Downstream Risk/Reward Index
Unites States - Risk/Reward Index
Market Overview
United States Energy Market Overview
Licensing And Regulation
Government Policy
Licensing Rounds
Table: Total BOEM Acreage To Be Offered 2012-2017
Table: 2016-2017 Lease Sale Schedule
International Energy Relations
Table: Key Upstream Players
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
Table: New US Refineries
Table: 2014 Refinery Expansions
Table: Refineries In the US
Service Stations
Oil Storage Facilities
Oil Terminals/Ports
Oil Pipelines
Table: US Crude Oil Pipelines Online/Planned, 2012-2014
LNG Terminals
Table: LNG Terminals In the US
Table: US LNG Export Terminal Projects
Gas Storage Facilities
Gas Pipelines
Table: New Natural Gas Pipelines
Competitive Landscape
Competitive Landscape Summary
Table: Key Upstream Players
Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Profile
Anadarko
BP America
Chevron
ConocoPhillips
ExxonMobil
Shell USA
Other Summaries
Regional Overview
North America And Western Europe Regional Overview
Table: North America - Key Regional Indicators, 2013-2024
Table: Western Europe - Key Regional Indicators, 2013-2024
Glossary
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Source
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Weighting

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